Quick answer: A hat trick prop is a yes/no bet on whether a player will score three or more goals in a single NHL game. The term ‘hat trick’ comes from the tradition of fans throwing hats onto the ice to celebrate three goals from one player. Pricing is heavily skewed because hat tricks are rare. Even elite goal-scorers like Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak only record hat tricks every 12-15 games on average. Lines typically price at +800 to +2500, which is mathematically equivalent to a 4-11% probability.
The Math of Hat Trick Probability
Hat tricks are statistically rare even for top scorers. Matthews scored 60 goals in the 2021-22 season across 73 games, but he recorded only 5 hat tricks (6.8% rate). Wayne Gretzky’s career hat-trick rate was approximately 8%. Modern stars usually fall between 4% and 8% per-game hat-trick probability when they’re hot, and below 3% when they’re not. Pricing at +1000 (9.1% implied) is roughly fair for the league’s top sniper in an optimal matchup; +1500 (6.25% implied) is fair for solid first-line scorers.
Hat Trick Props in the Market
Lines are yes/no with American odds. Elite snipers (Matthews, Pastrnak, Connor): +800 to +1500. Second-tier scorers: +1500 to +3000. Most starters never have hat trick props because their probability is below 2%. The vig is typically baked into +800 prices that imply 11.1% probability vs the actual 6-8% probability of even the league’s best snipers, which means books bank on public bettors loving the dream of a big payout.
The Sharp Strategy (or Lack Thereof)
Hat tricks are one of the harder NHL markets to find +EV in because the books price them tightly relative to the underlying rare-event probability. The sharp angle, when it exists, is identifying a perfect-storm matchup: an elite sniper at home against a backup goalie with a sub-0.890 save percentage in a high-event game with elevated goal projections. PropsBot’s NHL model has graded 29,189 NHL props with 86.5% Win Rate on the High Hit Rate Signal, but hat tricks specifically are not where our edge concentrates. We focus on volume markets like SOG and goals where the calibration math works at higher hit rates per bet.
Notable Hat Trick Records
Joe Malone holds the single-game record at 7 goals (1920). Modern era single-game record is 6 by Mario Lemieux (1989) and Newsy Lalonde (1922). Hat tricks have decreased per-capita in modern NHL because team defense is tighter. Wayne Gretzky’s career total of 50 hat tricks remains the all-time mark. Bobby Orr recorded a hat trick from the defenseman position 7 times in his career, which remains the standard for blueliner scoring.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a hat trick in hockey?
Three goals scored by the same player in a single game. The term comes from the tradition of fans throwing hats onto the ice to celebrate.
Does a hat trick include power-play and shorthanded goals?
Yes. Any combination of three goals counts, regardless of whether they’re scored at even strength, on the power play, or shorthanded. Empty-net goals also count.
What’s a typical hat trick prop price?
Elite snipers (Matthews, Pastrnak, Connor): +800 to +1500. Solid first-line scorers: +1500 to +3000. Most starters don’t have hat trick props because the implied probability is below 2%.
Are hat trick bets +EV long-term?
Generally no. Books price these tightly relative to true rare-event probabilities. The vig hides in the price gap between implied and actual probability.
Who has the most hat tricks in NHL history?
Wayne Gretzky with 50 career hat tricks. Mario Lemieux is second with 40. Modern era leaders include Alex Ovechkin (28+) and David Pastrnak (15+, climbing).
Part of the PropsBot.AI Sports Betting Glossary. Updated 2026-05-04.
