Quick answer: Hold percentage is the sportsbook’s expected profit margin on a betting market, calculated as the amount over 100% when you sum the implied probabilities of all possible outcomes. A market with 4.8% hold means the book keeps roughly 4.8 cents of every dollar wagered, in expectation, regardless of outcome. Hold is the structural reason books are profitable; bettors have to find edge that exceeds hold to make money long-term.
Hold vs Vig (They’re Closely Related)
Vig and hold measure the same thing from slightly different angles. Vig is usually quoted as the price of one side (‘-110 vig’). Hold is usually quoted as the percentage of total handle the book expects to keep (‘4.8% hold’). For a typical -110 to -110 spread, vig is what you pay per bet, hold is the book’s expected take across all bets on that market. Both come from the same underlying math: implied probabilities summing to more than 100%.
Hold by Market Type (and Why It Matters)
NFL and NBA spreads: 4.5-5% hold. Moneylines: 3-4% (because favorites and underdogs balance each other). Player props: 6-10%. Same-game parlays: 15-30% (the book stacks correlation premiums). Futures and exotic markets: 20-40%. The general rule, more outcomes equals higher hold. A bet you can find at 3% hold versus 6% hold has fundamentally different long-term economics, even if your hit rate is identical. Smart bettors prioritize markets with the lowest hold.
What Hold Tells You About Where Sharp Money Goes
Sharps cluster around the lowest-hold markets because the math is most favorable. Spread bets and moneylines on major US sports get the bulk of professional action. Player props are profitable for sharps with calibrated models, but the 7-9% hold means you need a real edge to clear it. PropsBot’s MLB High ROI Signal at 31.7% verified ROI across 101,881 graded props makes the math work, but only because the model’s Brier score (0.1903) beats the Vegas closing line (0.1947) by enough to overcome hold.
Practical Implications for Your Bankroll
Avoid futures and parlays unless you have a specific reason. The hold on those markets makes the math nearly impossible to beat over time. Bet single sides on lower-hold markets (spreads, moneylines, total points). For prop betting, line shop aggressively because the same prop at -115 vs -125 represents a meaningfully different hold. Use the PropsBot No-Vig Calculator (propsbot.ai/tools/no-vig-fair-odds-calculator) to compute the true probability after stripping out hold, which is what you compare against your model’s projection.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the difference between hold and vig?
Vig is the commission you pay per bet (‘-110 means I pay 10 cents on every dollar to win’). Hold is the book’s expected take across all bets on a market. Both measure the same underlying margin, just from different perspectives.
What’s a typical hold percentage on NFL spreads?
About 4.5-5% on standard -110 to -110 spreads. Reduced-juice books offer 3-4% hold on the same spreads when promoted.
Why are parlay holds so high?
Books stack the per-bet vig across each leg, then add a correlation premium. A 4-leg parlay can have 15-25% effective hold compared to 4.8% on the underlying single bets.
How do I find low-hold markets?
Game-line bets (spread, moneyline, total) on major sports usually have the lowest hold. Major markets at the largest US books cluster around 4.5-5%. Pinnacle (international) regularly offers 2-3% hold on the same markets.
Can I overcome hold without an edge?
No. Hold is the structural advantage the book has. The only way to make money long-term is to find lines where your probability estimate exceeds the post-hold no-vig probability.
Part of the PropsBot.AI Sports Betting Glossary. Updated 2026-05-04.
