No-vig odds are the implied probability of a sportsbook line after stripping out the bookmaker’s commission, called the vig (vigorish) or juice. The no-vig price represents the sportsbook’s true estimate of the outcome’s probability. Sharp bettors compare no-vig closing odds against their own models to identify positive expected value (+EV) bets.
How No-Vig Odds Work
Sportsbooks build a margin into every line. A typical NFL spread of -110/-110 doesn’t actually represent a 50/50 split — it represents a 52.4%/52.4% split totaling 104.8%. That extra 4.8% is the vig. To find the true probability the book is implying, you remove the vig.
Worked example: Standard NFL spread (-110 / -110)
- Convert each side’s American odds to implied probability:
-110 → 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.38% - Sum the two implied probabilities: 52.38% + 52.38% = 104.76% (this is the overround — the vig).
- Divide each side by the total to get the no-vig probability:
52.38 / 104.76 = 50.00% per side
So the book’s true estimate is 50/50. The 4.76% gap is the sportsbook’s hold percentage.
Worked example: Asymmetric prop (-145 over / +120 under)
- Over -145 → 145 / (145 + 100) = 59.18% implied
- Under +120 → 100 / (120 + 100) = 45.45% implied
- Total: 59.18 + 45.45 = 104.63% (vig)
- No-vig over: 59.18 / 104.63 = 56.56%
- No-vig under: 45.45 / 104.63 = 43.44%
If your model says the over is hitting 60% of the time, you have a +3.4 percentage-point edge over the no-vig book line.
How to Use No-Vig Odds When Betting
- Find +EV bets: Compare your model’s true probability to the no-vig implied probability. If your number is higher, you have positive expected value.
- Measure CLV: Use no-vig closing odds (not the raw line) to calculate accurate closing line value.
- Compare books: The book with the lowest hold gives you the best price. Even tiny no-vig differences compound across hundreds of bets.
- Use a calculator: Manual math gets old fast. The PropsBot No-Vig Calculator handles two-sided and three-sided markets instantly.
Common Mistakes and Misconceptions
- Comparing your odds to the raw line: A -110 bet at a -110 close has zero CLV at no-vig. Many bettors mistakenly count this as a “good” close.
- Forgetting three-sided markets: Soccer, hockey, and baseball moneylines have a draw or extra-innings option. The no-vig math requires summing all three sides.
- Treating book lines as truth: The no-vig price is the book’s estimate, not the truth. PropsBot’s MLB models post a Brier score of 0.1903 vs. Vegas 0.1947 — our calibration is more accurate than the books in our deepest-data sport.
- Ignoring book hold variance: Hold ranges from 2-3% on sharp markets to 8%+ on player props. The vig isn’t constant.
No-Vig Across Different Markets
| Market | Typical Hold | Why |
|---|---|---|
| NFL spread | ~4-5% | Sharp market, lots of action, tight pricing |
| NBA spread | ~4-5% | Same — efficient market |
| Player props | 5-10% | Less liquid, books charge more juice |
| Same-game parlays | 15-25% | Correlation premium baked in |
| Niche sports | 6-12% | Smaller market, wider lines |
FAQ
What is the difference between vig and hold? Vig is the sportsbook’s commission on each individual line. Hold is the overall percentage the book keeps after all action is settled across both sides.
Why is vig higher on player props? Lower liquidity means more risk for the book. Books pad the juice to protect against sharp money on softer prop lines.
Can I bet against the no-vig line and still win? Yes — no-vig is the book’s estimate, not the truth. If your model has a better estimate, betting the side the book underpriced is +EV.
What is a no-vig two-way market? A market with only two outcomes (e.g., NFL moneyline). Three-way markets (soccer, hockey ML) require summing all three sides for the no-vig calculation.
How accurate is the no-vig price? For sharp closing lines, the no-vig probability is one of the most accurate forecasts available. PropsBot beats Vegas calibration in MLB and NHL, which is rare.
