Quick answer: Derrick Henry is the power-back archetype. His weekly board: rushing yards over 95.5 to 120.5 (-110 to -125), total TDs over 0.5 (-145 to -200), longest rush over 18.5 to 26.5 (-115 to -135), rushing attempts over 18.5 to 22.5 (-110 to -125), and scrimmage yards over 105.5 to 125.5. The edge on Henry lives in his rushing yards prop and TDs because the Ravens run-heavy offense feeds him 20+ carries weekly when game script cooperates.
What Drives Henry’s Rushing Volume
Three factors. First: opposing run defense quality (interior run-stopping specifically). Henry’s between-the-tackles power overcomes most defenses; only top-5 run defenses meaningfully suppress him. Second: game script. Ravens leading produces 22+ carries; trailing scripts drop volume to 14-16. Third: red-zone usage. Henry is the goal-line back, making the TDs prop high-EV in plus matchups.
TDs and Long Rush
Total TDs over 0.5 hits ~68-75% in neutral matchups. Longest rush over 22.5 hits ~58-65% — Henry’s breakaway speed at his size is unique.
Where the Sharp Edge Lives
Rushing yards over against bottom-15 run defenses in Ravens favorable game scripts. TDs over in red-zone-heavy spreads. Longest rush over against weak interior run defenses (forces him to break to outside). Attempts over in close-spread games.
Common Mistakes
Betting against Henry in close-spread games where Ravens establish run game. Same-game parlay traps. Ignoring weather (Henry’s profile holds up in adverse conditions; book lines don’t always reflect this).
Worked Example
Week 4, Ravens at Browns, projected close spread. Browns run defense ranks 18th. Henry rushing yards over 102.5 at -115. Model projects 115+. TDs over 0.5 at -160 has independent edge.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s Henry’s typical rushing yards line?
95.5 to 120.5 depending on matchup.
Are Henry TDs over profitable?
Yes. Goal-line role drives 68-75% probability in neutral matchups, higher in red-zone-heavy game scripts.
Does weather help Henry’s props?
Yes. His power profile holds up in adverse weather while finesse backs struggle. Books often don’t fully price this.
How does PropsBot project Henry?
Calibrated probability with run defense ranking, game script, red-zone usage, and weather inputs.
Should I bet attempts over rushing yards?
Attempts is more game-script dependent; rushing yards captures both volume AND efficiency. Take whichever has the bigger matchup-driven edge.
Updated 2026-05-04. For live picks on Derrick Henry, visit the PropsBot.AI dashboard. Browse the full player prop hub or our 80-entry sports betting glossary.
