Week 2 props (updated September 14, 2026)
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens — Sunday, September 20 at 1:00 PM ET. 2 markets posted on Derrick Henry at capture.
| Market | Line | Best sportsbook price (book) | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 82.5 | PrizePicks (pick’em) | not scored yet |
| Anytime touchdown | Yes | Yes −200 (Fanatics) | leans yes (confidence 66) |
Lines captured September 14, 2026 at 6:48 PM ET from the PropsBot board. They move; the board has the live number. “Pick’em” means only PrizePicks or Underdog had posted the market when we looked — no sportsbook price to shop yet. “Not scored yet” means the model had not published a confidence for that market at capture.
Model lean: anytime touchdown — leans yes (confidence 66). The other market is not scored yet.
What he did in Week 1
In Baltimore’s 41–23 win at Indianapolis Henry carried 24 times for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns with a long of 32. His one target went for a 19-yard catch, 163 yards from scrimmage in total.
Where the model was right last week
These leans held from the first capture to kickoff (no side flip) and won:
- Over 91.5 rushing + receiving yards — he had 163 (FanDuel −113, opened 90.5)
- Under 1.5 receptions — he had 1 (FanDuel −250)
Derrick Henry props FAQ
What is Derrick Henry’s rushing yards line this week?
82.5 rushing yards on the pick’em boards (PrizePicks — no sportsbook had posted it when we captured), as of September 14, 2026. The model has not scored it yet.
Is Derrick Henry a good anytime TD bet this week?
He is −200 at Fanatics to score as of September 14, 2026. He scored 3 touchdowns in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts (3 rushing). The model leans yes (confidence 66). Whether that is a good bet depends on the price you can get; check the live board before you play it.
Where can I see Derrick Henry’s live props?
On the PropsBot NFL board: https://web.propsbot.ai/board?sport=nfl. It carries every posted market with the current line, the best price across books and the model’s confidence. A monthly plan is at https://web.propsbot.ai/signup?plan=monthly.
Live lines: https://web.propsbot.ai/board?sport=nfl. Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
Quick Answer
Derrick Henry player props should be judged by the current line, price, role, and market fit, not by the stiff-arm highlights. Start with rushing yards, rushing attempts, and anytime touchdowns, compare the number across books, then use PropsBot’s model edge and tracking context to decide whether the prop is still playable this week.
Quick answer: Derrick Henry is the highest-volume running back prop in football — a workhorse whose weekly board includes rushing yards over 74.5 to 94.5 (typically -110 both sides), rushing attempts over 17.5 to 21.5 (-110 to -130), anytime touchdown (-130 to -180), and longest rush over 14.5 to 16.5. The unique angle on Henry is the fourth-quarter split: his per-carry efficiency climbs as games wear on, so his overs are the best late-game bet on the board when Baltimore leads, and his unders die in positive game script. The model edge lives in books that price his line off season averages without charging enough for game script and opponent run-defense fatigue rates.
What Drives Henry’s Rushing Yards Line
Game script first, everything else second. Henry with Baltimore leading after halftime is the best rushing over in the league — the Ravens bleed clock, he gets carry after carry, and tired fronts give up chunk runs in the fourth. Baltimore trailing is the opposite profile: he loses snaps to the passing back, his attempts line at 17.5 gets sweaty, and 80 yards becomes a grind. Second: opponent run-fit discipline. Henry punishes missed gaps and arm tackles; defenses that tackle well in space hold him to 3.5 a carry, defenses that don’t give up a 40-yarder that clears the line by itself. Third: the line number. Books post 74.5 to 94.5 depending on spread, and the spread is the tell — double-digit favorites, bet the over and don’t overthink it.
Attempts, Touchdowns, and Longest Rush
Rushing attempts over 17.5 to 21.5 is the purest game-script prop on his board. In wins he clears 20 carries regularly; in losses he can finish at 12. Anytime touchdown (-130 to -180) is priced off Baltimore’s league-best red-zone run rate near the goal line — when the Ravens get inside the five, Henry gets the ball, and the prop is really a bet on the team reaching the red zone three-plus times. Longest rush over 14.5 to 16.5 is the sneaky value market: his breakaway rate stays elite even as the raw speed ages, because defenses tackle him high and he runs through it. One crease and the prop cashes in the first quarter.
Where the Sharp Edge Lives in Henry Props
Three angles. First: rushing overs when Baltimore is favored by a touchdown or more. His fourth-quarter usage in positive script is the most bankable volume in the player-prop market, and books underprice the closing-kick effect. Second: attempts overs in cold-weather and wind games. When the passing game is compromised, the Ravens lean on him completely, and the attempts line moves less than the usage does. Third: longest-rush overs against defenses with poor second-level tackling. The number sits at 14.5 or 15.5 all season while his explosive-run rate against bad tackling teams is double the league average. PropsBot.AI’s NFL model flags Henry weekly because script-dependent backs create exactly the pricing inefficiencies the High ROI Signal hunts.
Receiving Work and the Two-Minute Question
Henry’s receiving props barely exist, and that absence is itself information. His receiving yards line sits at 2.5 to 6.5 when books post it at all, and his snap share in obvious passing situations goes to the pass-catching backs. That matters for bettors in two ways. First: his rushing attempts unders are live in any game script that projects pass-heavy — trailing teams, shootouts, and two-minute-heavy endings all bleed his volume. Second: his full-game rushing overs need the Ravens to stay in base and heavy personnel, which means close-or-ahead scripts through three quarters. The two-minute drill is the hidden leak in his props: a game where Baltimore needs a late scoring drive costs Henry four or five snaps and sometimes a series of clock-killing carries he never gets. The clean Henry bet is the rushing over in a game Baltimore leads at halftime; the messy one is the same over in a game with a total above 48, where shootout risk caps his fourth-quarter workload even in a win.
Common Mistakes on Derrick Henry Props
First: betting his rushing over when Baltimore is an underdog. His volume is script-dependent, and negative script turns a 17.5 attempts line into a coin flip at best. Second: buying the anytime TD at -180 or worse. At that price you need a 64% score rate, and even Henry doesn’t clear it when the matchup or spread is wrong. Third: ignoring the receiving-work question. Henry catches almost nothing; on pass-heavy scripts his snap share drops, and bettors who only check the rushing line miss the volume leak.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s a typical Derrick Henry rushing yards line?
74.5 to 94.5 depending on spread and opponent. As a big favorite the line climbs toward 90-plus and still clears; as an underdog it drops to the 70s and the under becomes the sharper side.
Are Henry touchdown props worth betting?
Yes, at the right price. Anything shorter than -150 needs the right setup — Baltimore as a favorite with a high team total. At -180 or worse the value is usually gone and the alt rushing-yards markets are the better exposure.
What’s a typical Henry rushing attempts line?
17.5 to 21.5. It’s the most script-sensitive prop on his board. Positive game script gets him past 20 carries; negative script can hold him under 15. Bet the attempts over only when Baltimore is favored.
Does PropsBot project Henry props weekly?
Yes. The calibrated NFL model accounts for spread, team total, opponent run-defense and tackle-efficiency rates when projecting each prop. The High ROI Signal flags bets when model probability exceeds implied by 8+ percentage points.
Why do Henry’s props clear more often in the second half?
Because that’s when he does his damage. Defenses wear down, Baltimore leans on the run with a lead, and his fourth-quarter yards-per-carry is among the best in football. His full-game overs are really fourth-quarter bets.
Updated 2026-07-24. For live picks on Derrick Henry, visit the PropsBot.AI board. Browse the full player prop hub or our sports betting glossary.
How To Read Derrick Henry Props
A good Derrick Henry prop decision starts with the market, not the highlight clip. The first job is to identify exactly what the sportsbook is asking you to bet: receiving yards, rushing volume, touchdowns or receptions. Those markets can point to the same player and still require different evidence — a great NFL spot in one market can be a terrible bet in another on the same night.
The point is not to manufacture action. The point is to know when the current number still deserves attention and when the market already moved. If PropsBot shows a lean, the next question is whether the available book price still leaves enough expected value after the market has adjusted.
The last check is the one most bettors skip: what has to be true for this bet to win. Every Derrick Henry prop has a game environment hiding inside it — a script, a matchup, a usage assumption. Write that assumption down before you bet. If the assumption depends on everything breaking right, the line isn’t a bet, it’s a hope. The props worth playing are the ones where the assumption is boring and likely, and the price is simply wrong.
Market Notes
Rushing yards and attempts: Game script is the check that matters. Baltimore favored by seven-plus is the over profile on both; Baltimore as an underdog is the pass or under profile, full stop.
Touchdowns and longest rush: Red-zone team context drives the TD projection, and opponent tackling efficiency drives the longest-rush number. Both markets reprice slower than the matchup data moves.
Price shopping: The same Derrick Henry prop can carry -110 at one book and -135 at another, and that gap is bigger than most model edges. Check two or three books before betting anything on this page. PropsBot’s Confidence Score and Edge Score do the first half of the work — the odds comparison does the second, and skipping it turns good reads into losing bets over a full season.
What Moves The Number
For Derrick Henry, line movement should be read alongside news, not in isolation. An injury report, a lineup change, or a book correcting a stale opener all move the price, and the difference matters — following a worse number turns a good read into a bad bet.
Check role first: snap share, target or carry volume, injury report status, and the game script the spread implies. Then check price. Two books can post the same Derrick Henry prop with very different juice, and that difference is often the entire edge. PropsBot’s odds-shopping workflow is built for that exact moment: find the best number, compare it to the model, and avoid taking a stale or overpriced side just because the prop looks familiar.
When To Pass
The best answer is not always over or under. Pass when the line moved through the model edge, when the injury report isn’t final yet, when the public has already steamed the obvious side past the model number, or when the book with the best price is no longer available to you. That kind of discipline matters more on player props than on almost any other betting market because small prices compound over a season.
Use this page as a research stop, then connect it to the broader PropsBot workflow: today’s slate, available books, model confidence, tracked results, and bankroll rules. The goal is not to bet every Derrick Henry market. The goal is to recognize the few spots where the line, projection, and price are all pointing in the same direction.
Bankroll sizing is the other half of the pass-or-play decision. A prop you like at a fair price is a smaller bet than a prop the model flags with a real edge, and a prop you can’t explain in one sentence isn’t a bet at all. Derrick Henry will be on the board again next game. The bettors who last in this market are the ones who treat a skipped prop as a good outcome, not a missed one.
