The top NBA pick today, Monday, May 4, 2026, is Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (PHI @ NYK, 8:10 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 68.1% Confidence with a 4.2% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits about 4 points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: BetMGM -115.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 8:10 PM ET tipoff.
| Window | Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 40% / 40% / 50% | BetMGM | 11.5 Rebounds | -115 |
| Season | 52% | BetMGM | 11.5 Rebounds | -115 |
| H2H vs PHI | 40% | BetMGM | 11.5 Rebounds | -115 |
Is Karl-Anthony Towns a good Over 11.5 Rebounds bet on May 4, 2026?
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Why Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds?
PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 68.1% Confidence Score to Karl-Anthony Towns clearing 11.5 rebounds tonight against Philadelphia. That threshold qualifies as High Confidence — meaning the consensus across PropsBot’s models is meaningfully above coinflip but stops short of the 80% Very High Confidence band reserved for top-tier picks. The pick carries a 4.2% Edge Score, indicating the modeled probability of an Over outcome sits 4.2 percentage points above the 54% implied probability priced into the BetMGM line.
Historical Performance at 11.5 Rebounds
Towns’s recent rebound output has been streaky — he has hit Over 11.5 in 50% of his last 20 games, with the L5 and L10 both sitting at 40%. The season-long mark of 52% and the head-to-head split versus Philadelphia at 40% paint a mixed picture on raw hit rate alone. The model’s edge here is not built on a hot recent stretch; it is built on the matchup-specific signal that Philadelphia gives up high defensive rebounding chances in this stretch of the schedule, plus the heavy 32.0 minutes-per-game floor Towns has held all season.
Matchup Context: PHI @ NYK
Philadelphia plays at a 102.4 pace — meaningfully faster than New York’s 98.9 — which inflates total possessions and rebound chances on both sides. The opponent’s 43.0% three-point attempt rate is the key driver: more threes mean more long misses, and long misses are the highest-yield rebound type for a true center like Towns. Philadelphia is allowing a .464 opponent field goal percentage and a 26.6% offensive rebounding rate, and the Knicks themselves are converting at 47.8% from the field, which means more defensive rebound opportunities for Towns when shots fall the other way. The 213.0 game total and -7.5 New York spread point to a Knicks-controlled game with plenty of volume to clear 11.5 boards.
Best Line Available
BetMGM is posting the best price on the Over at -115, implying 54% probability — directly under PropsBot’s modeled 68.1% number. That gap is the entire thesis. Shop the line: anything at -120 or shorter is still positive expected value at the modeled probability, but -115 is the cleanest number on the board.
Recent Track Record on PropsBot’s NBA Rebounds Picks
Across the last 30 days of PropsBot’s NBA rebound picks at High Confidence (Confidence Score 65–79%), the public ledger shows the typical hit-rate range PropsBot tracks for this band. Full pick-by-pick history is published at Performance Methodology — every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome.
How PropsBot Models NBA Rebounds Props
Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/. The NBA rebounds model in particular weights player usage rate, minutes projection, opponent pace, opponent three-point attempt rate (long misses produce more rebound chances), opposing center defensive presence, and rest days.
More NBA Player Props — May 4, 2026
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
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Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Karl-Anthony Towns on NBA.com
- Advanced metrics: Rebound rate and minutes on Basketball-Reference
- Game info: Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks on May 4, 2026
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 4, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 4, 2026
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