The top NHL pick today, Wednesday, May 6, 2026, is Rasmus Andersson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (ANA @ VGK, 9:50 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 66.1% Confidence with a 4.1% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits about 4 points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: FanDuel -176.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 9:50 PM ET puck drop.
| Window | Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 40% / 60% / 65% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -176 |
| Season | 59% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -176 |
| H2H vs ANA | 83% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -176 |
Is Rasmus Andersson a good Over 1.5 Shots on Goal bet on May 6, 2026?
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Why Rasmus Andersson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal?
PropsBot’s AI assigns Rasmus Andersson a 66.1% Confidence Score on the Over 1.5 Shots on Goal line. That’s in the High Confidence band (65–79%). The 4.1% Edge Score is where this one earns its keep — modeled true price sits around -204, market is at -176. That’s real value at this number, the kind of gap you don’t usually find on a defenseman SOG line. Andersson plays 23.2 minutes a night, runs the top pair, and shoots from the point on the power play.
Historical Performance at 1.5 Shots on Goal
The recent form is the noise. L5: 40%. L10: 60%. L20: 65%. Season: 59%. The L5 looks ugly until you remember he averages 2.2 SOG/Gm — the line is 1.5 and his per-game average sits half a shot above it. The H2H vs Anaheim is the loud number: 83%. He fires when he sees this matchup. Team Shots Per Game is 29 (high volume from his side), and his SH% of 9.6% on a defenseman points to a player who actually gets pucks through, not just attempts them. Corsi/60 of 12.8 backs the shot rate.
Matchup Context: ANA @ VGK
Anaheim gives up 3.5 goals per game and 28.4 shots against per game — that’s a leaky shot suppression number. Opp BLK/Gm at 14.4 means more pucks are getting past their forwards to the goalie, which is exactly what you want on a SOG line. PIM/Gm at 9.9 means Andersson should see 4-on-3 or 5-on-4 PP looks; one PP goes a long way at 1.5. Game O/U sits at 6.5 (green flag — total volume environment). The Player Production score is 0/5 pass, but on a defenseman SOG line that’s less concerning than it would be for a forward — the model penalizes for non-shot stats Andersson doesn’t need to clear this number.
Best Line Available
FanDuel has Rasmus Andersson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal at -176, implied 64%. PropsBot’s model has it at 68.1%. Shop DraftKings, BetMGM, and Hard Rock Bet — anything south of -176 is the price to grab. If a book has stretched the line to 2.5 SOG, that’s a different read with different math. This pick is the standalone Over 1.5 Shots on Goal only.
Recent Track Record on PropsBot’s NHL Shots on Goal Picks
Full pick-by-pick history for PropsBot’s NHL Shots on Goal picks at High Confidence (Confidence Score 65–79%) is published at Performance Methodology — every entry has the date, line, book, and graded outcome.
How PropsBot Models NHL Shots on Goal Props
Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus collapses to a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/. The models train on player-level shot attempt data, ice time, Corsi rates, shooting percentages, and opponent defensive tendencies.
More NHL Player Props — May 6, 2026
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
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Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Rasmus Andersson on NHL.com
- Advanced metrics: Shot share and Corsi on Hockey-Reference
- Game info: Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights on May 6, 2026
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 6, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 6, 2026
See every PropsBot NHL daily pick (newest first): /category/nhl-picks/
