The top NHL pick today, Monday, May 4, 2026, is Tomas Hertl Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (ANA @ VGK, 9:40 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 64.5% Confidence with a 2.9% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits 2.9 points above the implied probability priced into the FanDuel line. Best available price: FanDuel -184.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 9:40 PM ET puck drop.
| Window | Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 60% / 70% / 65% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -184 |
| Season | 65% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -184 |
| H2H vs ANA | 66% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -184 |
Is Tomas Hertl a good Over 1.5 Shots on Goal bet on May 4, 2026?
Research and analytics output, not betting advice. 21+ where required. 1-800-GAMBLER · ncpgambling.org.
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Why Tomas Hertl Over 1.5 Shots on Goal?
PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 64.5% Confidence Score to Hertl pushing past 1.5 shots on goal against the Anaheim Ducks. That threshold qualifies as Moderate Confidence — meaning the modeled probability holds a meaningful lean Over the line, even if it’s not in the very-high tier reserved for 80%+ projections. The pick carries a 2.9% Edge Score, indicating that PropsBot’s modeled probability sits roughly three points above FanDuel’s implied probability of 65% on the Over.
Historical Performance at 1.5 Shots on Goal
Hertl has cleared 1.5 shots on goal in 3 of his last 5 games (60%), 7 of his last 10 (70%), and 13 of his last 20 (65%). The season-long rate sits at 65%, and his head-to-head log against Anaheim is 66%. The L10 and L20 windows are the most informative here — both sit at the same 65-70% band that priced the line at -184, so the recent form lines up cleanly with the season baseline rather than relying on a small hot streak. Production data backs it up: Hertl is averaging 2.5 SOG/Gm with a 17.4 Corsi/60 rate, signalling sustained shot-attempt volume.
Matchup Context: ANA @ VGK
Anaheim is allowing 3.5 goals against per game and surrendering 28.4 shots against per game — both numbers above the league average and both flagged green by PropsBot’s matchup model. The Ducks’ penalty minutes per game (9.9) keeps Vegas regularly on the power play, where Hertl logs additional ice time and shot generation. The 6.5 Game O/U total — on the higher end of the league’s nightly slate — reinforces an offensive-leaning script where shot volume is more available, not less. Vegas runs an aggressive shot-attempt offence (29 team shots per game), which feeds directly into Hertl’s individual SOG ceiling.
Best Line Available
FanDuel is currently the only book PropsBot is tracking on this market at -184. With an implied probability of 65% and a modeled probability of 67.4%, the edge sits at +2.9% before vig adjustments. If alternative lines open elsewhere closer to puck drop — particularly a -170 or shorter price — that’s the spot to take. Always line-shop the moments before the 9:40 PM ET puck drop, since shots-on-goal markets often see late steam.
Recent Track Record on PropsBot’s NHL Shots on Goal Picks
Across the last 30 days of PropsBot’s NHL shots on goal picks at Moderate Confidence (Confidence Score 50-64%), the public ledger shows graded results published at Performance Methodology — every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome. The Moderate band typically prices into the -150 to -200 range, mirroring tonight’s line.
How PropsBot Models NHL Shots on Goal Props
Multiple AI models trained on player-level shot attempt data, ice time, Corsi rates, shooting percentages, and opponent defensive tendencies score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.
More NHL Player Props — May 4, 2026
Today’s full NHL slate is available inside PropsBot with Confidence Scores, Edge Scores, and multi-book odds comparisons across goals, assists, shots, and goalie saves. Sign up free to access every pick before puck drop.
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
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Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Tomas Hertl on NHL.com
- Advanced metrics: Hertl shot attempt and Corsi data on Hockey-Reference
- Game info: Anaheim at Vegas on May 4, 2026
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 4, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 4, 2026
See every PropsBot NHL daily pick (newest first): /category/nhl-picks/
