Also on the MLB slate today, an MLB pick today, Monday, May 18, 2026, is Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (HOU @ MIN, 7:41 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 51.6% Confidence with a 2.4% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits 6 points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: Dabble DFS -132.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 7:41 PM ET first pitch.
| Window | Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 80% / 60% / 65% | Dabble DFS | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -132 |
| Season | 55% | Dabble DFS | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -132 |
| H2H vs Tatsuya Imai | 40% | Dabble DFS | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -132 |
Is Byron Buxton a good Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs bet vs Tatsuya Imai on May 18, 2026?
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Why Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs vs Tatsuya Imai?
PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 51.6% Confidence Score to Byron Buxton clearing over 1.5 hits + runs + rbis in this spot. That number lands in the Moderate Confidence band. Edge Score is 2.4% — the model’s read of how mispriced the Dabble DFS line is right now. Confidence Gap sits at -5.9%, the spread between PropsBot’s modeled probability and the 58% baked into the market.
Historical Performance at 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Byron Buxton has cleared over 1.5 hits + runs + rbis in 4 of his last 5, 6 of his last 10, and 13 of his last 20. The H2H vs Tatsuya Imai sits at 40%, and his season mark against this line is 55%. The L5 → L10 → L20 walk-down tells you the recent run is doing the heavy lifting; the season is the regression target.
Matchup Context: HOU @ MIN
Houston’s facing Tatsuya Imai, a righty whose profile Buxton historically swings well against — the 40% H2H is the one number that argues against, but H2H samples this small swing fast and the L20 at 65% is the more reliable read. Twins are home, implied team total reasonable for a 1.5-line combo prop. The thesis: Buxton needs one hit OR one run OR one RBI to clear 1.5 most slates — that’s a low bar for a hitter putting up a 6 just five days ago.
Best Line Available
Dabble DFS at -132 is the best juice available on Buxton’s Over 1.5 H+R+RBI tonight. Novig sits at -148, ProphetX at -150, Fliff at -155. The 23-cent spread between Dabble and Fliff is real edge — line shop, don’t just take the first book you see. The +2.4% Edge Score is calculated against the average market price; against Dabble specifically the edge is closer to +5%.
How PropsBot Grades MLB H+R+RBI Picks
Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.
How PropsBot Models MLB Hits + Runs + RBIs Props
Buxton’s L5 sits at 80% — he’s cleared 1.5 H+R+RBI four times in his last five with totals of 6, 1, 2, 5, 7. The two ducks in there (the 0s on 5/5 and 5/6) were both against right-handed starters in low-volume team contexts. The peripherals (the LEAN OVER 11/15 signal on the pill) tell you 11 of 15 underlying indicators favor the Over here. Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.
More MLB Player Props — May 18, 2026
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
Compare to other AI prop tools
Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Byron Buxton on MLB.com
- Advanced metrics: Statcast metrics for Byron Buxton
- Game info: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins on May 18, 2026
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 18, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 18, 2026
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- Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Hits (MLB)
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- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 Rebounds (NBA)
See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/
