2026 NFL Week 4 · Updated September 30, 2026
NFL Week 4 picks: current market status
Week 4 boards are posted and move through kickoff. PropsBot labels a play only when a current line and the model inputs pass validation; otherwise the correct result is Pass.
Live NFL markets · Week 4 · board updates through kickoff
Week 4 NFL markets are live
Prices move all week. Open the board, read the Confidence and Edge on each line, and verify the current number before you decide.
Today’s NFL board
Read the number, then shop it
The same prop is priced differently at every book. The board flags the best price and the model’s side.
Sunday’s slate
Passing, rushing, receiving, anytime TD
L5, L10, L20 and season hit rates on every row. The labs carry the why.
Model output is research, not a guarantee. Odds and availability can change. Verify the current price and bet responsibly. 21+.
NFL picks today for Week 4 (Oct 1–5, 2026): every player prop PropsBot’s model scores at 60+ confidence, from Thursday’s Steelers at Browns through Monday’s Falcons at Saints. Updated September 29, 2026.
NFL Week 4 model reads (Oct 1–5, 2026)
Lines and model confidence captured Tuesday, Sep 29 (3:12 p.m. ET) from the PropsBot NFL board. Prices move through the week; the live NFL board carries the current price and score.
Quick answer: 21 props clear PropsBot’s 60-confidence bar for NFL Week 4 at this capture. The strongest: Deshaun Watson (interceptions thrown under 0.5, 78), Bryce Young (interceptions thrown under 0.5, 78), Jared Goff (interceptions thrown under 0.5, 76).
PropsBot’s model gives each side of a prop a confidence score. We only call a side a read when it scores 60 or higher on a side a sportsbook actually prices. Every Week 4 prop that clears the bar is below, highest first.
| Player | Team | Game | Market | Line | Side | Confidence | Price at capture |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | Steelers at Browns Thu Oct 1 8:15 p.m. ET | Interceptions thrown | 0.5 | Under | 78 | -107 (DraftKings) |
| Bryce Young | CAR | Lions at Panthers Sun Oct 4 8:20 p.m. ET | Interceptions thrown | 0.5 | Under | 78 | +104 (betPARX) |
| Jared Goff | DET | Lions at Panthers Sun Oct 4 8:20 p.m. ET | Interceptions thrown | 0.5 | Under | 76 | -159 (betPARX) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | Lions at Panthers Sun Oct 4 8:20 p.m. ET | Anytime touchdown | — | Yes (to score) | 69 | -285 (Fanatics) |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | Titans at Ravens Sun Oct 4 1:00 p.m. ET | Anytime touchdown | — | Yes (to score) | 68 | -230 (Fliff) |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | Steelers at Browns Thu Oct 1 8:15 p.m. ET | Longest completion | 34.5 | Over | 68 | -115 (Hard Rock Bet) |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | Colts at Commanders Sun Oct 4 9:30 a.m. ET | Anytime touchdown | — | Yes (to score) | 67 | -235 (BetMGM) |
| Daniel Jones | IND | Colts at Commanders Sun Oct 4 9:30 a.m. ET | Longest completion | 34.5 | Over | 66 | -125 (Fliff) |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | Chiefs at Raiders Sun Oct 4 4:25 p.m. ET | Anytime touchdown | — | Yes (to score) | 64 | -155 (Fanatics) |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | Steelers at Browns Thu Oct 1 8:15 p.m. ET | Passing TDs | 0.5 | Over | 64 | -216 (Pinnacle) |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | Steelers at Browns Thu Oct 1 8:15 p.m. ET | Interceptions thrown | 0.5 | Under | 64 | -117 (DraftKings) |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | Rams at Eagles Sun Oct 4 1:00 p.m. ET | Passing TDs | 1.5 | Under | 64 | -235 (FanDuel) |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | Colts at Commanders Sun Oct 4 9:30 a.m. ET | Longest completion | 34.5 | Over | 64 | -125 (Fliff) |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | Broncos at 49ers Sun Oct 4 4:25 p.m. ET | Anytime touchdown | — | Yes (to score) | 63 | -185 (Fanatics) |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | Falcons at Saints Mon Oct 5 8:15 p.m. ET | Anytime touchdown | — | Yes (to score) | 62 | -200 (BetOnline.ag) |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | Rams at Eagles Sun Oct 4 1:00 p.m. ET | Receptions | 5.5 | Under | 62 | +116 (FanDuel) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | Lions at Panthers Sun Oct 4 8:20 p.m. ET | Receptions | 6.5 | Under | 62 | +116 (betPARX) |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | Colts at Commanders Sun Oct 4 9:30 a.m. ET | Longest rush | 17.5 | Under | 62 | -115 (Fliff) |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | Steelers at Browns Thu Oct 1 8:15 p.m. ET | Receptions | 3.5 | Under | 62 | -121 (DraftKings) |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | Steelers at Browns Thu Oct 1 8:15 p.m. ET | Passing TDs | 1.5 | Under | 61 | -202 (DraftKings) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | Jaguars at Bengals Sun Oct 4 1:00 p.m. ET | Receptions | 6.5 | Under | 60 | +102 (BetOnline.ag) |
At capture the Week 4 board held 2,830 props across 16 games; 902 were scored and the rest are openers the model grades as more books post. A line with no score is not a fade — it has not been graded yet. This block is refreshed before Sunday.
Open the NFL board · NFL Week 4 picks & predictions · NFL defense rankings · Public performance ledger
Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
David’s video breakdowns
Written versions of David’s YouTube videos, with every pick and price as quoted at recording.
NFL Week 4 game previews
Every Week 4 game with the board total, the model’s 60+ reads and the matchup numbers behind them.
- Steelers vs Browns — Thu Oct 1 (TNF)
- Colts vs Commanders — Sun Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
- Titans vs Ravens — Sun Oct 4
- Jaguars vs Bengals — Sun Oct 4
- Patriots vs Bills — Sun Oct 4
- Jets vs Bears — Sun Oct 4
- Cowboys vs Texans — Sun Oct 4
- Rams vs Eagles — Sun Oct 4
- Cardinals vs Giants — Sun Oct 4
- Packers vs Buccaneers — Sun Oct 4
- Dolphins vs Vikings — Sun Oct 4
- Chiefs vs Raiders — Sun Oct 4
- Broncos vs 49ers — Sun Oct 4
- Chargers vs Seahawks — Sun Oct 4
- Lions vs Panthers — Sun Oct 4 (SNF)
- Falcons vs Saints — Mon Oct 5 (MNF)
How to use this page
- Start with the table: every prop listed scored 60 or higher on a side a sportsbook prices at capture.
- Check the live price on the NFL board before you bet — a moved line is a different prop.
- Pair a read with the matchup: NFL defense rankings and defense vs position show what each defense has allowed this season.
More NFL on PropsBot
- NFL Week 4 picks & predictions
- Anytime touchdown picks
- NFL player props hub
- PrizePicks picks today · Underdog picks today
- Last week: NFL Week 3
FAQ
What are the best NFL picks today for Week 4?
The 21 props in the table above — led by Deshaun Watson under 0.5 interceptions (78), Bryce Young under 0.5 interceptions (78), Jared Goff under 0.5 interceptions (76) at this capture.
What counts as a PropsBot NFL pick?
A side of a prop that the model scores at 60 confidence or higher, on a side a sportsbook actually prices. Nothing below 60 is called a pick, and an unscored opener is not a fade.
When is this page updated?
At the start of each NFL week and again before the Sunday slate. The capture time is printed above the table; the live board always has the current number.
How has the model done?
The only performance numbers PropsBot publishes are the dashboard signal cards, with sample sizes and dates, on the public performance ledger.
