PropsBot Model Accuracy: Public Performance Ledger (2026)

Q: How often is this page updated?

Weekly. Every row carries its own as-of date, and the page's date stamp is September 14, 2026. The dashboard is live and is the source of truth whenever a figure here has aged.

PropsBot publishes a graded ledger of every pick its signals produce. As of September 14, 2026, the High Hit Rate Signal shows a 73.2% win rate on 20,222 graded NFL picks, 76.6% on 200,885 NBA picks and 87.1% on 29,362 NHL picks; the High ROI Signal returned 13.7% on 8,210 NFL picks, 25.9% on 81,410 NBA picks and 15.1% on 8,988 NHL picks. A win rate is not a return.

This page is the crawlable copy of the ledger that lives in the PropsBot performance dashboard. Every figure below names its signal, its sample size and its date. Nothing is blended across signals or sports, and the dashboard is the source when the two differ.

NFL ledger

Signal	Graded picks	Win rate	ROI	As of
High Hit Rate Signal	20,222	73.2%	−2.0%	Sep 14, 2026
High ROI Signal	8,210	56.9%	13.7%	Sep 14, 2026
Line is Nuts Signal	20,489	51.2%	1.3%	Sep 14, 2026

The NFL High Hit Rate row is the reason this page exists: 73.2% of its picks won, and the signal still returned −2.0% (−411 units at a flat unit per pick). The NBA card shows the same shape: 76.6% won, −1.4% returned. Both numbers are true at once. The win rate is the share of that signal’s graded picks that won; the ROI is profit divided by the amount staked across those same picks, after the prices paid. The High ROI Signal is the return-focused card, and it won less often (56.9%) while returning 13.7%.

NBA ledger

Signal	Graded picks	Win rate	ROI	As of
High Hit Rate Signal	200,885	76.6%	−1.4%	Sep 14, 2026
High ROI Signal	81,410	47.1%	25.9%	Sep 14, 2026
Line is Nuts Signal	166,803	46.8%	−5.2%	Sep 14, 2026

NHL ledger

Signal	Graded picks	Win rate	ROI	As of
High Hit Rate Signal	29,362	87.1%	−2.4%	Sep 14, 2026
High ROI Signal	8,988	47.2%	15.1%	Sep 14, 2026
Line is Nuts Signal	10,541	52.2%	3.4%	Sep 14, 2026

NHL is the highest win rate on the ledger and the same shape again: 87.1% of High Hit Rate picks won at a −2.4% return (−714 units), while the High ROI Signal returned 15.1% on 8,988 picks at a 47.2% win rate.

MLB calibration

MLB is reported here as a calibration score, not a win rate. The Brier score measures how closely the model’s stated probabilities match what actually happened; lower is better, and the comparison is against the probability implied by the sportsbook price on the same props.

Measure	Graded props	PropsBot	Vegas implied	As of
Brier score (lower is better)	101,881	0.1903	0.1947	Jul 12, 2026

This figure comes from PropsBot’s 2026 MLB Model Performance Report (calibration study dated July 12, 2026), the same 101,881-prop comparison cited on the player prop hub. It is a study, not a live card, and it is not refreshed weekly with the NFL and NBA rows above.

How to read this

Win rate is the share of a signal’s graded picks that won. It says nothing about price. A signal can win most of its picks and lose money if the winners pay less than the losers cost, which is exactly what the NFL High Hit Rate row shows.
ROI is profit divided by the amount staked across every graded pick on that card. It is the number that answers “did this signal make money”, so the High ROI Signal is the return-focused card even when its win rate is the lowest on the page.
Graded picks is the sample size. Every row pairs its rate with its count and its date because a rate without a denominator cannot be checked. NFL cards are roughly a tenth the size of NBA cards, so their figures move more from week to week.
High Hit Rate Signal — per the methodology page, it “flags props where multiple internal models converge on the same direction with high confidence.” The ledger reports it as a win rate on those picks.
High ROI Signal — per the methodology page, it “flags props where the model’s projected probability is meaningfully higher than the sportsbook’s implied probability after vig is removed.” The ledger reports it as a return on those picks.
Line is Nuts Signal — the dashboard’s third card, reported here as an ROI on its graded picks. The methodology page does not yet define it; PropsBot’s February 2026 NBA model release notes describe it as flagging props where the model and the sportsbook disagree on direction.

The grading rules, the Confidence and Edge Scores, and the calibration method are on the performance methodology page. This page does not repeat them.

What is not on this ledger

No aggregate across sports. NFL, NBA and NHL cards are separate cohorts and are reported separately.
NFL Week 1 2026 article leans. PropsBot’s Week 1 preview and recap articles describe pre-kickoff model leans on specific props. Those are editorial and are not graded ledger rows; nothing from them is counted here.
MLB is a Brier score, not a win rate. The 0.1903 vs 0.1947 comparison measures calibration on 101,881 graded props. It is not a hit rate and it is not an ROI.
No combined total. The cards are separate cohorts. This page does not add them into one “picks graded” or one “PropsBot ROI” figure, and it does not publish a single accuracy percentage.
Older snapshots. Other PropsBot pages carry figures from earlier dates. When two figures differ, the later date and the live dashboard win.

Frequently asked questions

How accurate is PropsBot?

It depends on the signal and the measure, so PropsBot does not publish a single accuracy percentage. As of September 14, 2026, the High Hit Rate Signal won 73.2% of 20,222 graded NFL picks, 76.6% of 200,885 NBA picks and 87.1% of 29,362 NHL picks, while the High ROI Signal returned 13.7% on 8,210 NFL picks, 25.9% on 81,410 NBA picks and 15.1% on 8,988 NHL picks. In MLB the model’s Brier score is 0.1903 against 0.1947 for the sportsbook implied probability on 101,881 graded props.

Is a 73% win rate profitable?

Not on its own. The NFL High Hit Rate Signal won 73.2% of 20,222 graded picks and still shows a −2.0% ROI, because those picks are priced short and the winners pay less than the losers cost. Profit is the ROI card: the NFL High ROI Signal won only 56.9% of 8,210 picks and returned 13.7%.

How many picks has PropsBot graded?

As of September 14, 2026, the NFL cards show 20,222 (High Hit Rate), 8,210 (High ROI) and 20,489 (Line is Nuts) graded picks, the NBA cards show 200,885 (High Hit Rate), 81,410 (High ROI) and 166,803 (Line is Nuts), and the NHL cards show 29,362, 8,988 and 10,541. The MLB calibration comparison covers 101,881 graded props. The cards are separate cohorts, so this page does not add them into one total.

Where can I see the live ledger?

At dashboard.propsbot.ai, on the Performance page. Every pick is logged with the player, market, line, direction and result, and the ledger can be filtered by sport, signal, market and date range. The dashboard updates as games settle, so it will run ahead of the dated figures on this page.

How often is this page updated?

Weekly. Every row carries its own “as of” date, and the page’s date stamp is September 14, 2026. The dashboard is live and is the source of truth whenever a figure here has aged.