PropsBot publishes a graded ledger of every pick its signals produce. As of September 29, 2026, the High Hit Rate Signal shows a 74.4% win rate on 22,210 graded NFL picks, 76.6% on 200,885 NBA picks and 84.4% on 35,027 NHL picks; the High ROI Signal returned 16.8% on 8,571 NFL picks, 25.9% on 81,410 NBA picks and 15.2% on 9,913 NHL picks. A win rate is not a return.
This page is the crawlable copy of the ledger that lives in the PropsBot performance dashboard. Every figure below names its signal, its sample size and its date. Nothing is blended across signals or sports, and the dashboard is the source when the two differ.
NFL ledger
| Signal | Graded picks | Win rate | ROI | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Hit Rate Signal | 22,210 | 74.4% | −5.0% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| High ROI Signal | 8,571 | 51.7% | 16.8% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Line is Nuts Signal | 22,139 | 51.0% | 0.9% | Sep 29, 2026 |
The NFL High Hit Rate row is the reason this page exists: 74.4% of its picks won, and the signal still returned −5.0% (−1,114 units at a flat unit per pick). The NBA card shows the same shape: 76.6% won, −1.4% returned. Both numbers are true at once. The win rate is the share of that signal’s graded picks that won; the ROI is profit divided by the amount staked across those same picks, after the prices paid. The High ROI Signal is the return-focused card, and it won less often (51.7%) while returning 16.8%.
NBA ledger
| Signal | Graded picks | Win rate | ROI | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Hit Rate Signal | 200,885 | 76.6% | −1.4% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| High ROI Signal | 81,410 | 47.1% | 25.9% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Line is Nuts Signal | 166,803 | 46.8% | −5.2% | Sep 29, 2026 |
NHL ledger
| Signal | Graded picks | Win rate | ROI | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Hit Rate Signal | 35,027 | 84.4% | −2.7% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| High ROI Signal | 9,913 | 44.9% | 15.2% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Line is Nuts Signal | 10,547 | 52.2% | 3.3% | Sep 29, 2026 |
NHL is the highest win rate on the ledger and the same shape again: 84.4% of High Hit Rate picks won at a −2.7% return (−946 units), while the High ROI Signal returned 15.2% on 9,913 picks at a 44.9% win rate.
MLB ledger
| Signal | Graded picks | Win rate | ROI | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Hit Rate Signal | 205,941 | 78.9% | −2.6% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| High ROI Signal | 11,727 | 45.8% | 17.3% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Line is Nuts Signal | 35,007 | 51.0% | 2.3% | Sep 29, 2026 |
MLB follows the same pattern: 78.9% of High Hit Rate picks won at a −2.6% return (−5,371 units), while the High ROI Signal returned 17.3% on 11,727 picks at a 45.8% win rate (+2,028 units). The dashboard notes that MLB’s served-score history ends on August 16, 2026, so MLB picks after that date are graded on the model score.
MLB calibration
MLB is reported here as a calibration score, not a win rate. The Brier score measures how closely the model’s stated probabilities match what actually happened; lower is better, and the comparison is against the probability implied by the sportsbook price on the same props.
| Measure | Graded props | PropsBot | Vegas implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brier score (lower is better) | 101,881 | 0.1903 | 0.1947 | Jul 12, 2026 |
This figure comes from PropsBot’s 2026 MLB Model Performance Report (calibration study dated July 12, 2026), the same 101,881-prop comparison cited on the player prop hub. It is a study, not a live card, and it is not refreshed weekly with the NFL and NBA rows above.
How to read this
- Win rate is the share of a signal’s graded picks that won. It says nothing about price. A signal can win most of its picks and lose money if the winners pay less than the losers cost, which is exactly what the NFL High Hit Rate row shows.
- ROI is profit divided by the amount staked across every graded pick on that card. It is the number that answers “did this signal make money”, so the High ROI Signal is the return-focused card even when its win rate is the lowest on the page.
- Graded picks is the sample size. Every row pairs its rate with its count and its date because a rate without a denominator cannot be checked. NFL cards are roughly a tenth the size of NBA cards, so their figures move more from week to week.
- High Hit Rate Signal — per the methodology page, it “flags props where multiple internal models converge on the same direction with high confidence.” The ledger reports it as a win rate on those picks.
- High ROI Signal — per the methodology page, it “flags props where the model’s projected probability is meaningfully higher than the sportsbook’s implied probability after vig is removed.” The ledger reports it as a return on those picks.
- Line is Nuts Signal — the dashboard’s third card, reported here as an ROI on its graded picks. The methodology page does not yet define it; PropsBot’s February 2026 NBA model release notes describe it as flagging props where the model and the sportsbook disagree on direction.
The grading rules, the Confidence and Edge Scores, and the calibration method are on the performance methodology page. This page does not repeat them.
What is not on this ledger
- No aggregate across sports. NFL, NBA and NHL cards are separate cohorts and are reported separately.
- NFL Week 1 2026 article leans. PropsBot’s Week 1 preview and recap articles describe pre-kickoff model leans on specific props. Those are editorial and are not graded ledger rows; nothing from them is counted here.
- MLB is a Brier score, not a win rate. The 0.1903 vs 0.1947 comparison (calibration study dated July 12, 2026) measures calibration on 101,881 graded props. It is not a hit rate and it is not an ROI.
- No combined total. The cards are separate cohorts. This page does not add them into one “picks graded” or one “PropsBot ROI” figure, and it does not publish a single accuracy percentage.
- Older snapshots. Other PropsBot pages carry figures from earlier dates. When two figures differ, the later date and the live dashboard win.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is PropsBot?
It depends on the signal and the measure, so PropsBot does not publish a single accuracy percentage. As of September 29, 2026, the High Hit Rate Signal won 74.4% of 22,210 graded NFL picks, 76.6% of 200,885 NBA picks and 84.4% of 35,027 NHL picks, while the High ROI Signal returned 16.8% on 8,571 NFL picks, 25.9% on 81,410 NBA picks and 15.2% on 9,913 NHL picks. In MLB, in a calibration study dated July 12, 2026, the model’s Brier score was 0.1903 against 0.1947 for the sportsbook implied probability on 101,881 graded props.
Is a 74% win rate profitable?
Not on its own. The NFL High Hit Rate Signal won 74.4% of 22,210 graded picks and still shows a −5.0% ROI, because those picks are priced short and the winners pay less than the losers cost. Profit is the ROI card: the NFL High ROI Signal won only 51.7% of 8,571 picks and returned 16.8%.
How many picks has PropsBot graded?
As of September 29, 2026, the NFL cards show 22,210 (High Hit Rate), 8,571 (High ROI) and 22,139 (Line is Nuts) graded picks, the NBA cards show 200,885 (High Hit Rate), 81,410 (High ROI) and 166,803 (Line is Nuts), and the NHL cards show 35,027, 9,913 and 10,547. The MLB calibration study (dated July 12, 2026) covers 101,881 graded props. The cards are separate cohorts, so this page does not add them into one total.
Where can I see the live ledger?
At dashboard.propsbot.ai, on the Performance page. Every pick is logged with the player, market, line, direction and result, and the ledger can be filtered by sport, signal, market and date range. The dashboard updates as games settle, so it will run ahead of the dated figures on this page.
How often is this page updated?
Weekly. Every row carries its own “as of” date, and the page’s date stamp is September 29, 2026. The dashboard is live and is the source of truth whenever a figure here has aged.
Links
- Live ledger: dashboard.propsbot.ai
- How the picks are graded: Performance and methodology
- Tonight’s picks: PropsBot board
- Start a subscription: Sign up
Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
