Is Kyle Bradish Over 1.5 Earned Runs a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Kyle Bradish earned runs prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Kyle Bradish's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best earned runs for Kyle Bradish's Over prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Kyle Bradish Over 1.5 Earned Runs — MLB Picks Today, May 19

Name: PropsBot.AI
Availability: InStock
Author: David Reilich

By David

Published May 19, 2026

Also on the MLB slate today, an MLB pick today, Tuesday, May 19, 2026, is Kyle Bradish Over 1.5 Earned Runs (BAL @ TB, 6:41 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 59.7% Confidence with a 0.9% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits a single point above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: Hard Rock Bet -170.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 6:41 PM ET first pitch.

Window	Over Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	60% / 80% / 66%	Hard Rock Bet	1.5 ER	-170
Season	77%	Hard Rock Bet	1.5 ER	-170
H2H vs TB	0%	Hard Rock Bet	1.5 ER	-170

Is Kyle Bradish a good Over 1.5 Earned Runs bet vs the Rays on May 19?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Tuesday, May 19, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

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Why Kyle Bradish Over 1.5 Earned Runs vs the Rays?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 59.7% Confidence Score to Kyle Bradish over 1.5 Earned Runs tonight. That threshold qualifies as Moderate Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 0.9% Edge Score, with a -3.3% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

Bradish has surrendered 2+ ER in 8 of his last 10 starts despite a respectable 3.46 xFIP. The full ERA at 4.21 is the read — the K-suppression profile (low Barrel% Ag 10.2%, but Hard% Ag 39.8%) leaves him exposed when the ball gets in play. The Rays’ 6.36 R/G over the recent window is the lift, and PropsBot’s models priced this at 59.7% Confidence.

Historical Performance at 1.5 Earned Runs

Bradish has cleared 1.5 ER in 8 of his last 10, 13 of his last 20, and 77% of his starts on the season. The L5 cooled to 60%, but the longer windows are the trend. There’s no meaningful H2H sample vs the current Rays lineup, so the model leans on team OPS (.722) and wRC+ (107.2) to set the volume.

Matchup Context: BAL @ TB

BAL at TB on a Tuesday 6:41 PM start. Tropicana is a hitter-friendly hot-day environment under the dome, and TB’s offense ranks top-10 in runs/game over the rolling window. Bradish’s 4.21 ERA and 3.99 L5 ERA suggest the underlying skill hasn’t fully caught up to the surface results — Over 1.5 is the volume bet, not a skills bet.

Best Line Available

Hard Rock Bet has the Over at -170 — soft of the consensus -180 to -200 you’ll see at most major books. Implied 63%, modeled 64% — a slim 0.9% Edge by price alone, but the volume read (77% season hit rate) is the carry. Alt-line shoppers can find Over 2.5 ER at +120ish.

How PropsBot Grades MLB ER Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Earned Runs Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — May 19, 2026

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Kyle Bradish on MLB.com
Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Kyle Bradish
Game info: BAL at TB on May 19, 2026

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 19, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

Today’s Other AI Picks — May 19, 2026

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Tagged AI Picks, Earned Runs, Kyle Bradish, MLB, MLB Picks Today, Player Props