PropsBot’s home run pitcher board for August 8, 2026 ranks today’s starters by how vulnerable they are to the long ball, and surfaces Aaron Nola and Matthew Liberatore at the top. Aaron Nola leads it at 2.10 HR/9 allowed, with Matthew Liberatore next.
Be clear about what this board is before the numbers. It is a research screen, not a set of picks — it names pitchers, not hitters, and it carries no prices. Its job is to tell you which matchups are worth pointing home-run research at; you still have to find the bat and the number yourself.
1. Aaron Nola — 2.10 HR/9 (PHI vs. TOR)
Aaron Nola (RHP, 120 innings) draws TOR in PHI vs. TOR, and the board ranks him No. 1 on the slate for home-run vulnerability at 2.10 HR/9 allowed. Against left-handed bats specifically he has given up 5.5% HR per batter faced — 18 home runs in 326 plate appearances. Wind at first pitch is 6 mph. Signals fired: High HR/9 · Barrel contact.
2. Matthew Liberatore — 1.58 HR/9 (STL vs. COL)
Matthew Liberatore (LHP) draws COL in STL vs. COL, and the board ranks him No. 2 on the slate for home-run vulnerability at 1.58 HR/9 allowed. Against left-handed bats specifically he has given up 5.2% HR per batter faced — 6 home runs in 115 plate appearances , a sample small enough to read as a tendency rather than a settled rate. Wind at first pitch is 5 mph. Signals fired: High HR/9 · Barrel contact. The board had this matchup selected when the screen was captured.
Inside the Matthew Liberatore Matchup
Expanding the selected row gives the full rate block behind the ranking. Read these as season-to-date tendencies:
| Metric | Matthew Liberatore |
|---|---|
| HR/9 allowed | 1.58 |
| Barrel% allowed | 8.6% |
| Hard-hit% allowed | 42.3% |
| ERA | 4.97 |
| xERA | 4.86 |
| FIP | 4.70 |
| WHIP | 1.49 |
| xSLG allowed | 0.442 |
| K% | 22.5% |
| Exit velo allowed | 90.4 |
| Park HR factor | — (not shown) |
| Priced bats | 0 |
The board fired 4 target signals on this matchup: High HR/9, Barrel contact, Hard contact, Run prevention.
One important caveat, straight off the screen: Priced Bats reads 0. At capture there were no hitter home-run props actually priced against this starter. The matchup signal is real; the tradeable position did not exist yet. If you are working from this board, re-check the live market before assuming there is something to take.
The Handedness Target
The sharpest part of this screen is the split. Against Matthew Liberatore, the board flags left-handed bats as the side to target, worth +1.6 percentage points of HR per batter faced: 5.2% to the target side (6 home runs in 115 batters faced) against 3.6% the other way (13 in 364).
The honest counterweight is the denominator. 115 batters faced is a light sample next to the 364 on the other side, so the gap is directional rather than settled — a handful of batted balls either way moves it. It is a reason to look, not a reason to assume.
See the Full MLB Home Run Board
PropsBot scores every starter on the slate for home-run vulnerability and every hitter for home-run probability, then re-sorts both as lines, lineups and weather move. The full board is free at app.propsbot.ai, and the performance methodology covers how picks are tracked and graded.
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