PropsBot’s tennis model leans Under 29.5 total games for Rafael Jodar vs. Brandon Nakashima at National Bank Open presented by Rogers — semifinal, hard court on August 12, 2026. The projection is 25.2 games, 4.3 below the line.
Why the model leans Under 29.5 total games
The number is doing most of the work. The model lands at 25.2, a -4.3-game gap to the posted line. Recent matches have stayed below this threshold far more often than they have cleared it: the Over rate is 20% in the last five, 20% in the last ten, and 24% on hard courts.
| Window | Average games | Over 29.5 rate |
|---|---|---|
| L5 | not shown | 20% |
| L10 | 23.4 | 20% |
| L20 | not shown | 35% |
| Hard | not shown | 24% |
Line-shopping context
The captured screen shows PrizePicks More 29.5, Underdog More 22.5, Sleeper More 22.5. These are DFS lines, not traditional sportsbook odds, and the lower 22.5 alternatives are materially different plays from the 29.5 line. This article only covers the displayed 29.5 model read.
How to use the projection
A total-games model is a distribution, not a promise. A third set, two tiebreaks, or one long set can push a match past 29.5 even when the median outcome sits lower. Use the projection as context and check the live number before making your own call.
See the full tennis board at app.propsbot.ai and the PropsBot methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PropsBot total-games projection for Rafael Jodar vs. Brandon Nakashima?
PropsBot projects 25.2 total games against a displayed line of 29.5, a gap of -4.3 games.
How often have recent matches gone Over 29.5 games?
The captured screen shows an Over rate of 20% in the last five, 20% in the last ten, and 24% on hard courts.
Responsible gambling. This model read is for information and entertainment only. Bet within your means, 21+ where required. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
Get every AI pick, Confidence Score, and prop edge inside the app.
Try PropsBot Free for 7 Days