Wembley before brunch on the East Coast. Jacksonville is laying 6.5 in its London home slot, total 42.5, and moneyline Confidence sits at 73.6% on the Jaguars / 26.4% on Philadelphia. That is a real lean.
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Primary ticket: Jalen Hurts Passing TDs Over 0.5 — a Confidence Score of 65 (Confidence Gap −2.3, Edge 4.9) at -206 DraftKings. Model verdict on that row: LEAN_UNDER. You are buying a near-lock TD throw at −206 with Gap already against you.
London lean: Jaguars moneyline
JAC ML Conf 73.6 with the Eagles as 9:30 a.m. ET road dogs is the cleanest game-level stance. −6.5 is still a lot of points for a London favorite to cover — the model is louder on who wins than on the number.
Hurts Pass TDs — Conf 65, Gap tax attached
Over 0.5 at −206 DraftKings prints Conf 65 with Edge 4.9. Gap −2.3 and LEAN_UNDER are the brakes. Prefer that ticket only if you accept the juice. Hurts Pass Yards Over 193.5 is Conf 52 (Gap −1.5, Edge 0.2) Hard Rock Bet — a wash.
Trevor Lawrence: INT Over and Pass Yards
Trevor Lawrence Interceptions Over 0.5 — Confidence Score 57 (Gap +5.8, Edge 10.9) at -105 BetOnline.ag. Gap +5.8 and Edge 10.9 are the biggest Edge on this lead pack; verdict still LEAN_UNDER, so size it like a speculative INT ticket.
Lawrence Pass Yards Over 229.5: Conf 53 / Gap −0.3 / Edge 0.3 FanDuel — neutral.
Leave Parker Washington alone
Longest Reception Over 23.5 shows Conf 53 with Edge 0 despite a STRONG_OVER tag. Edge 0 means no price. Skip.
- JAC moneyline Confidence (73.6) over inventing a −6.5 cover.
- Hurts Pass TDs Over 0.5 only if you accept −206.
- Lawrence INT Over 0.5 is the highest-Edge secondary.
Kickoff: October 11, 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET, London. Live rows: NFL board.
FAQ
Who does the model like in Eagles vs Jaguars?
Jacksonville on the moneyline — Confidence Score 73.6 vs Philly 26.4.
What is the top Eagles vs Jaguars player prop?
Hurts Pass TDs Over 0.5 at Conf 65 (−206 DraftKings), with the Gap/LEAN_UNDER warning.
Why is kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET?
NFL London game — Jacksonville is the designated home team.
Where do these Confidence Scores live?
Scored rows on the PropsBot NFL board from the Week 5 remaining-leads capture.
Get every AI pick, Confidence Score, and prop edge on PropsBot.
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