Buffalo visits Los Angeles at 8:15 PM ET on Monday Night Football, and the one Ram our model trusts to score is Kyren Williams. He’s the top anytime touchdown on the Bills at Rams board with a Confidence Score of 62, a Gap of +1.2 and an Edge of +3.4% on the 0.5 OVER. DraftKings has it at -155.
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The pick: Williams to score, Bills at Rams
| Player | Matchup | Kickoff | Market | Odds | Confidence | Gap | Edge | L10 hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | BUF @ LAR | 8:15 PM ET | Anytime TD 0.5 OVER | DraftKings -155 | 62 | +1.2 | +3.4% | 60% |
Nobody else in this game gets past the mid-50s. James Cook is next at 54, and Josh Allen and Puka Nacua sit at 51. Williams is the clear first choice, and he’s the only Ram near the top of the list who isn’t a receiver.
Why Williams
Start with the volume of scoring. Williams has found the end zone in 60% of his last 10 games, 70% of his last 20 and four of his last five. He comes in on a four-game scoring streak. Running backs who get the goal-line carries on a team favored at home don’t usually go quiet, and that’s his job here. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites with the total at 54.5, which is about as friendly a script as a lead back can get.
Reading the price
At -155, DraftKings implies about a 61% chance he scores. Our model sits a little higher, which is the +1.2 Gap, and the full Edge comes out to +3.4% on the OVER. That’s not a huge number, and we won’t pretend it is. It’s a fair price on the most likely scorer in the game, and we’ll take that over chasing a long shot who lands one week in four.
How we’d play it
Bet Williams straight, or use him as the base of a Monday night card. A win at -155 pays about 65 cents on the dollar, so size it like the solid favorite it is. If the price moves past -170 before kickoff, most of the edge is gone, so check the live number on the dashboard before you place it.
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The newest version of this card lives on our anytime TD picks page, updated every slate. More on this sport: NFL picks today. Game context: Bills vs. Rams prediction.
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