Take Connor McDavid over 1.5 points against Detroit. He’s had two or more points in 8 of his last 10 games, and BetMGM is only asking -135 for him to do it again at home tonight. Of the five props we’re writing up today, this has the widest gap between the model and the market.
The price is shorter than it should be
-135 implies 57.5%. PropsBot puts McDavid at a Confidence Score of 63.4, a Confidence Gap of +5.5, with an Edge Score of +3.8. The model’s projection is 1.64 points, so it’s not leaning on a career night. It just expects a normal McDavid game, and a normal McDavid game usually has two points in it.
The rest of the market agrees he’s likely to get there and charges more for it. DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet are at -150. FanDuel, BetRivers and Bally Bet are -148, and Fanatics is -140. BetMGM’s -135 is the best of the group, and a number that far off the pack doesn’t always last until puck drop.
What the Detroit matchup gives him
Goaltending, mostly. Detroit’s projected starter carries an .867 save percentage and the team is at .886 overall, both of which grade in McDavid’s favor on the board. The Red Wings’ penalty kill and their 10.2 penalty minutes a game also pass, which matters for a player who logs about 3:24 of power-play time a night. More Detroit penalties means more time for the Oilers’ top unit.
Edmonton comes in 8-2-1 and is a -180 home favorite on ESPN’s line, with the total at 6.5. A 6.5 total leaves plenty of room for him to be in on two.
Not everything on the card is green
Some of the inputs are neutral or worse. His expected points per 60 (1.15), shots per game (2.55) and total ice time all come in under the board’s thresholds tonight, and only 6 of the 14 checks on his card pass. That’s the reason this isn’t a 70. The case rests on the price and on two points being his normal output lately, not on every indicator lining up.
McDavid points prop: what to know
Puck drop: 9:30 PM ET at Rogers Place in Edmonton.
The bet: over 1.5 points at -135 on BetMGM. At -140 to -150 elsewhere, the Confidence Score still clears the price, but by a lot less.
Recent form: 2+ points in 8 of his last 10.
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