Is Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Alyssa Thomas assists prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Alyssa Thomas's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best assists for Alyssa Thomas's Under prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists — WNBA Picks Today, July 13

By David

Published July 13, 2026

Another high-edge WNBA pick today, Monday, July 13, 2026, is Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists (PHX @ MIN, 9:00 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 55.5% Confidence with a 2.7% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits just under three points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: tB -140.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 9:00 PM ET tipoff.

Window	Under Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	80% / 40% / 60%	tB	8.5 Assists	-140
Season	55%	tB	8.5 Assists	-140
H2H vs MIN	100%	tB	8.5 Assists	-140

Is Alyssa Thomas a good Under 8.5 Assists bet vs the Lynx on July 13?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Monday, July 13, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

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Why Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists vs the Lynx?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 55.5% Confidence Score to Alyssa Thomas under 8.5 Assists tonight. That threshold qualifies as Moderate Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 2.7% Edge Score, with a -2.8% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

This one bets against a high-assist engine, which is why it is only a 55.5% lean rather than a slam. Thomas is a genuine hub, running a 43.8% assist rate with a 7.5 ball-dominance mark, so 8.5 is a real number for her. The Under case is about the pieces around her: her teammates are shooting just .433, an assist only counts when the shot falls, and a 22.1% turnover rate caps the ceiling. Add a Minnesota defense holding opponents to .408 from the field and the paths to a ninth assist thin out.

Historical Performance at 8.5 Assists

The recent form leans Under. Over 8.5 assists has hit 45% on the season and just 40% across her last 20, so the Under has been the more frequent side. The last five are the strongest tell: the Over cleared only 20%, meaning she stayed under 8.5 in four of those five. The L10 is the caution flag at 60% Over, so this is a lean, not a lock.

Matchup Context: PHX @ MIN

Minnesota is the reason the number holds. A 97.8 defensive rating and a .408 opponent field-goal percentage mean fewer of Thomas’s setups turn into made baskets, and assists live or die on teammates finishing. The total is a modest 169.5. In a slower, tougher-shooting game, an elite passer can still fall a dime or two short of nine.

Best Line Available

The best price is -140 (tB), implying 58%. The model edges just above that at roughly 61% on the Under, the source of the 2.7% edge. Fair-ish rather than a steal, and the negative confidence gap says treat it as a lean.

How PropsBot Grades WNBA Assists Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from the league’s official site and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models WNBA Assists Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More WNBA Player Props — July 13, 2026

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Alyssa Thomas on WNBA.com
Advanced metrics: Alyssa Thomas on Basketball-Reference (WNBA)
Game info: PHX at MIN on July 13, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — July 13, 2026

Valeriane Ayayi Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (WNBA)

See every PropsBot WNBA daily pick (newest first): /category/wnba-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of July 13, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

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Tagged AI Picks, Alyssa Thomas, Assists, Player Props, WNBA, WNBA Picks Today