Is Andre Pallante Over 2.5 Earned Runs a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Andre Pallante earned runs prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Andre Pallante's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best earned runs for Andre Pallante's Over prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Andre Pallante Over 2.5 Earned Runs — MLB Picks Today, May 29 (70% AI)

By David

Published May 29, 2026

Another high-edge MLB pick today, Friday, May 29, 2026, is Andre Pallante Over 2.5 Earned Runs (CHC @ STL, 7:16 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 69.6% Confidence with a 4.4% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits about four points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: Hard Rock Bet -105.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 7:16 PM ET first pitch.

Window	Over Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	40% / 40% / 50%	Hard Rock Bet	2.5 Earned Runs	-105
Season	36%	Hard Rock Bet	2.5 Earned Runs	-105
H2H vs STL	50%	Hard Rock Bet	2.5 Earned Runs	-105

Is Andre Pallante a good Over 2.5 Earned Runs bet vs the Cubs on May 29?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Friday, May 29, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

Want more picks? PropsBot’s AI generates 50+ scored player prop predictions every day across NBA, MLB, NHL, and NFL. Try PropsBot free →

Why Andre Pallante Over 2.5 Earned Runs vs the Cubs?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 69.6% Confidence Score to Andre Pallante over 2.5 Earned Runs tonight. That threshold qualifies as High Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 4.4% Edge Score, with a +18.4% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

This is a bet on the Cubs’ bats, not on Andre Pallante having a bad night by accident. Chicago is putting up 6.01 runs a game with a 107.7 wRC+ — a top-shelf lineup walking in. Pallante’s 3.76 ERA flatters him; the 4.50 FIP and 36.5% hard-contact rate say the under-the-hood numbers are shakier. Over 2.5 Earned Runs only needs three to cross.

Historical Performance at 2.5 Earned Runs

The earned-runs Over is a coin flip on Pallante’s recent form — 40% over the last 5 and 10, 50% over the last 20, 36% on the season. Those splits are why the model isn’t maxed out. What tilts it is the opponent: a .728 team OPS. His 3.39 L5 ERA is the bull case for the Under; the Cubs are the bear case, and the bear wins more often against this profile.

Matchup Context: CHC @ STL

CHC @ STL, and the Cubs travel with the bats — 6.01 runs per game, 107.7 wRC+. Pallante doesn’t get to coast. A 36.5% hard-hit rate against and 7.2% barrels mean the loud contact is already in his line, and three earned runs is a low bar against a lineup hitting like this on May 29.

Best Line Available

Hard Rock Bet posts the Over 2.5 Earned Runs at -105 — basically a pick-em, implied 51%. PropsBot’s model says a 69.6% Confidence Score with a 4.4% Edge Score and a +18.4% Confidence Gap, the biggest gap on the MLB card today. Getting near-even money on a number the model likes that much is the value.

How PropsBot Grades MLB Earned Runs Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Earned Runs Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — May 29, 2026

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Andre Pallante on MLB.com
Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Andre Pallante
Game info: CHC at STL on May 29, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — May 29, 2026

See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 29, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

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Tagged AI Picks, Andre Pallante, Earned Runs, MLB, MLB Picks Today, Player Props