The top MLB pick today, Sunday, May 11, 2026, is Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (SF @ LAD, 10:11 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 53.9% Confidence with a 2.2% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits 2 points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: Caesars -157.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 10:11 PM ET first pitch.
| Window | Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 40% / 50% / 50% | Caesars | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -157 |
| Season | 55% | Caesars | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -157 |
| H2H vs SF | 37% | Caesars | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -157 |
Is Freddie Freeman a Good Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs Bet on May 11?
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Why Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs?
PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 53.9% Confidence Score to Freddie Freeman reaching at least two combined hits, runs, and RBIs against San Francisco. That’s Moderate Confidence — the model is seeing a slim edge. The 2.2% Edge Score is thin; the main argument here is Freeman’s production profile and the high-run environment at Dodger Stadium tonight, not a significant line mispricing.
Historical Performance at 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
The L5 at 40% is a yellow flag — Freeman has cleared 1.5 in only 2 of his last 5 games. Pull back to L10 and SZN and you get 50% and 55% respectively, which paint a more neutral picture. The H2H at 37% against San Francisco specifically is below average and worth watching. This is a game-environment play more than a Freeman-form play: his H/G of 1.05 and RBI/G of 0.53 show he generates counting stats at a pace that makes 1.5 reachable in most games, but his recent L5 says he’s in a soft stretch right now.
Matchup Context: SF @ LAD
This is the best game environment on the board tonight for a Freeman combo prop. LAD’s implied run total of 5.9 and a Game O/U of 9.5 signal a high-scoring game with Dodger bats expected to do damage. Freeman sits in the heart of a potent lineup against Trevor McDonald. Hard Hit% of 49.2% means when Freeman makes contact it tends to leave the yard or find gaps. The 1/3 pass on Game Context reflects the broader environment; Spread at -1.5 puts LAD comfortably ahead, giving Freeman’s counting stats a floor of playing time.
Best Line Available
Caesars leads at -157 on the Over 1.5. The juice is steep for a prop that needs 2 combined counting stats — if you can find this closer to -140 or -145 at another book, that’s meaningful EV improvement. The 2.2% edge is thin enough that line shopping matters more here than on higher-edge plays.
Recent Track Record on PropsBot’s MLB Combo Prop Picks
Across the last 30 days of PropsBot’s MLB combo prop picks at Moderate Confidence (Confidence Score 50–64%), the public ledger shows a 58% hit rate over graded picks. Full pick-by-pick history is published at Performance Methodology — every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome.
How PropsBot Models MLB Hits + Runs + RBIs Props
Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score. For MLB batter combo props, the models train on pitcher-batter matchup data, ballpark factors, weather conditions, platoon splits, and real-time lineup confirmations. Full methodology at /performance-methodology/.
More MLB Player Props — May 11, 2026
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
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Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Freddie Freeman on MLB.com
- Advanced metrics: Statcast Hard Hit% / wOBA on Baseball Savant
- Game info: SF at LAD on May 11, 2026
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 11, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 11, 2026
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- Peter Lambert Over 4.5 Strikeouts (MLB)
- Cale Makar Over 0.5 Points (NHL)
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 Rebounds (NBA)
- Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 Rebounds (NBA)
See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/
