PropsBot’s home run board for July 23, 2026 ranks every hitter on the slate by modelled probability of going deep, then pairs it with the opposing starter, the park factor, the wind and the best available price. Below are the three names the board surfaced today.
One thing to be clear about before the numbers: home run props are longshots by construction. The strongest read on today’s board sits under 20%, which means the model expects it to miss four times out of five. That is not a flaw in the pick, it is the shape of the market — and it is why every price here is plus money. Size them accordingly.
Note also that the tier badge and the probability are separate signals. A hitter can carry an ELITE tag at 11.0% because the tag reflects the quality of the spot, not the likelihood of the outcome.
Michael Harris II — 17.4% to homer (+403 DraftKings)
Michael Harris II (ATL, LHB) faces Griffin Canning (R) vs SD at 12:15 PM ET, in a park playing at a 0.95 factor (slightly suppressive) with an 11 mph crosswind. PropsBot puts him at 17.4% to go deep and tags the spot ELITE. Best available price is +403 at DraftKings. The board’s top probability today, and the lean flag reads LEAKY at 5.0% — Canning is the most generous starter on this short list at 1.41 HR/9. The batted-ball profile is the caveat: only 2 barrels in 14 days.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74.9 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 1.41 | — |
Alec Burleson — 14.0% to homer (+500 FanDuel)
Alec Burleson (STL, LHB) faces Brandon Pfaadt (R) vs ARI at 5:15 PM ET, in a park playing at a 0.87 factor (the most suppressive park on this list) with a 4 mph crosswind. PropsBot puts him at 14.0% to go deep and tags the spot PREFERRED. Best available price is +500 at FanDuel. Carries a DUE +99 flag and the best 14-day bat score on the board at 75.0, with 6 barrels. The park factor is working against him, which is part of why the price stays at +500.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.0 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 1.12 | — |
Ty France — 12.9% to homer (+567 Novig)
Ty France (SD, RHB) faces Chris Sale (L) at ATL at 12:15 PM ET, in a park playing at a 0.95 factor (slightly suppressive) with an 11 mph crosswind. PropsBot puts him at 12.9% to go deep and tags the spot PREFERRED. Best available price is +567 at Novig. The longest price of the three, and the toughest assignment — Sale allows just 0.70 HR/9, the stingiest mark on this list. France counters with the best EV100 on the board at 20.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.2 | 25 | 6 | 20 | 17 | 0.70 | — |
Alec Burleson also shows up on today’s H+R+RBI ladder board, where his best-value rung grades at 3+ — a materially different (and far more likely) outcome than the home run price listed here.
See the full MLB home run board
PropsBot scores every hitter on the slate for home run probability and re-sorts as lines and weather move. The full board is free at app.propsbot.ai.
Responsible gambling. Home run props are high-variance by design — the long prices reflect genuinely low hit rates. For information and entertainment only; bet within your means, 21+ where required. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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