The best NHL player prop for April 13, 2026 is Connor Bedard Over 0.5 Points. PropsBot’s AI gives this pick a 68.7% Confidence Score with a 1.3% Edge Score, signaling the market is slightly underpricing Bedard’s scoring probability tonight. Best available odds: Novig at -212.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 8:40 PM ET puck drop.
Today’s Top NHL Player Prop Pick
Why Connor Bedard Over 0.5 Points?
PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 68.7% Confidence Score to Connor Bedard recording at least one point against Buffalo tonight. That threshold qualifies as High Confidence — meaning multiple models agree on this outcome with meaningful conviction. The pick carries a 1.3% Edge Score, indicating the sportsbook’s implied probability (68%) sits just below PropsBot’s modeled probability for Bedard to get on the scoresheet.
Historical Performance at Over 0.5 Points
Bedard’s recent form makes a strong case for the over. Over his last 5 games he’s hit this line 80% of the time — the strongest window in his tracked history. The L10 sits at 60% and the L20 at 65%, reflecting a player who consistently gets on the scoresheet with occasional cold stretches. Season-long he’s at 65%, and his head-to-head rate against Buffalo specifically is 66%. The model sees tonight as aligned with that longer-term baseline.
Matchup Context: BUF @ CHI
The matchup provides enough support for the pick. Buffalo’s goalie is posting a .899 save percentage — a mark that passes PropsBot’s threshold, signaling some vulnerability in net. The Sabres are allowing 3.0 goals per game, and tonight’s game total is set at 6.5, indicating oddsmakers expect a high-scoring environment at the United Center. Buffalo logs 29.2 shots against per game, giving Bedard plenty of opportunities to generate chances. The Sabres’ 81.7% penalty kill rate is worth noting given Bedard’s 3.3 minutes of power play time per game — the PP upside is limited, but the even-strength volume is there.
Best Line Available
Novig is showing -212 on the over, reflecting the 68% implied probability baked into the market. With PropsBot modeling this at 68.7%, the edge is slim but present. If you can find a better number at another book, shop it — even a small juice improvement on a chalk prop adds up over a season.
How PropsBot Analyzes NHL Points Props
PropsBot’s AI evaluates NHL points props using multiple models trained on player-level shot attempt data, ice time, Corsi rates, shooting percentages, and opponent defensive tendencies. Those estimates are synthesized into a single Confidence Score — a percentage representing model agreement. The Edge Score identifies when sportsbook odds differ meaningfully from PropsBot’s modeled probability.
More NHL Player Props — April 13, 2026
Today’s full NHL slate is available inside PropsBot with Confidence Scores, Edge Scores, and multi-book odds comparisons across goals, assists, shots, and goalie saves. Sign up free to access every pick before puck drop.
All picks reflect PropsBot AI model output as of April 13, 2026. Odds are subject to change. PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Always bet responsibly.
