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March 6, 2026 — Confidence Score Per-Market Hyperparameter Tuning

This model update improves how PropsBot generates Confidence Scores.

On this Page

What Changed

Previously, all 59 player prop models used the same default training settings. Now, each market gets its own optimized
settings through an automated search process that tests dozens of configurations and picks the best one for that
specific market.

NHL and NBA models have been retrained and promoted with the new tuning approach.

NHL (8 Markets)

4 of 8 markets showed improvement, with the best gain of +4.7 percentage points on Shots on Goal:

  • Points
  • Goals
  • Assists
  • Shots on Goal
  • Blocked Shots
  • Power Play Points
  • Anytime Goal Scorer
  • Total Saves

NBA (16 Markets)

14 of 16 markets showed improvement, with consistent accuracy gains across the board:

  • Points
  • Rebounds
  • Assists
  • Threes
  • Blocks
  • Steals
  • Turnovers
  • Field Goals
  • Free Throws Made
  • Points + Rebounds + Assists
  • Points + Rebounds
  • Points + Assists
  • Rebounds + Assists
  • Blocks + Steals
  • Double Double
  • Triple Double

Why This Matters

Different markets behave differently — a high-volume market like points has very different characteristics than a rare
event like triple doubles. Using the same training settings for both leaves accuracy on the table. Per-market tuning lets
each model find the configuration that works best for its specific data.

What's Next

NFL and MLB models will be retrained with per-market tuning ahead of their respective seasons.

What Didn't Change

  • Feature sets — Same inputs as before for both NHL and NBA.
  • Model type — Still the same model architecture with calibration.
  • Validation process — New models were validated against existing models before promotion.