Quick answer: Mark Andrews is the red-zone TE with elite TD-per-target rate. His weekly board: receptions over 4.5 to 6.5 (-115 to -135), receiving yards over 50.5 to 70.5 (-110 to -125), total TDs over 0.5 (+105 to +160), longest reception over 18.5 to 24.5 (-115 to -130). The edge lives in his TDs prop because he produced 11 TDs in 2025 on just 69 targets.
What Drives Andrews’ Production
Three factors. First: Lamar’s red-zone targets to Andrews. Second: opposing LB coverage in red zone. Third: game script.
TDs Prop (the structural edge)
TDs over 0.5 hits ~58-65% in neutral matchups. Andrews’ red-zone target share is among the league’s highest. Public undervalues this prop weekly.
Where the Sharp Edge Lives
TDs over 0.5 in red-zone-heavy game scripts. Receiving yards over in dome road games. Receptions over in negative game scripts.
Common Mistakes
Ignoring Lamar’s status. Parlaying TDs + Lamar passing TDs (correlation premium).
Worked Example
Week 10, Ravens vs Bengals, projected close spread. Bengals red-zone defense ranks 26th. Andrews TDs over 0.5 at +130. Model projects 60% probability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s Andrews’ typical TDs line?
0.5 priced +105 to +160. Higher in red-zone-heavy game scripts.
Why is Andrews’ TD prop profitable?
His TD-per-target rate is among the highest in NFL. The +105-160 range often misprices his red-zone target share.
Does Lamar’s status affect Andrews?
Significantly. Lamar’s red-zone targets drive Andrews’ TD probability.
How does PropsBot project Andrews?
Calibrated probability with red-zone usage, opposing coverage, Lamar status, and game script inputs.
Should I parlay Andrews + Ravens ML?
Avoid SGPs. Heavy correlation premium.
Updated 2026-05-04. For live picks on Mark Andrews, visit the PropsBot.AI dashboard. Browse the full player prop hub or our 80-entry sports betting glossary.
