Another high-confidence under play in tonight’s MLB picks today, Thursday, May 7, 2026, slate is Ryan Vilade Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (TB @ BOS, 7:11 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 73.6% Confidence with a -5.6% Edge Score, meaning the sportsbook has the line priced ahead of where the model sits — but the +12.1% Confidence Gap says the AI is materially more bearish than the market. Best available price: Dabble DFS -137.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 7:11 PM ET first pitch.
| Window | Under Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 80% / 70% / 75% | Dabble DFS | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -137 |
| Season | 75% | Dabble DFS | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -137 |
| H2H vs BOS | 100% | Dabble DFS | 1.5 H+R+RBI | -137 |
Is Ryan Vilade a good Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs bet on May 7?
Research and analytics output, not betting advice. 21+ where required. 1-800-GAMBLER · ncpgambling.org.
Want more picks? PropsBot’s AI generates 50+ scored player prop predictions every day across NBA, MLB, NHL, and NFL. Try PropsBot free →
Why Ryan Vilade Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs?
The model lands at 73.6% Confidence Score — High Confidence — with a -5.6% Edge Score and a +12.1% Confidence Gap. Player Ability scored 0 of 9 pass: every offensive metric on the card fails to support clearing the line. .719 OPS, .386 SLG, 32.4% Hard Hit%, and most importantly, 0.57 H/G — Vilade only averages a hit once every two starts. The Under is the structural play.
Historical Performance at 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Read these as Under hit rates: 80% L5, 70% L10, 75% L20, 75% on the season. H2H vs Boston is 100% Under — Vilade has never cleared 1.5 H+R+RBI against the Red Sox. The 0.57 hits per game and 0.43 RBI/G translate to a player who, on most starts, scratches one of the three buckets at most. Two events in a single game is the exception, not the rule.
Matchup Context: TB @ BOS
Same Fenway environment as the Caminero side of this slate — 48°F, 6mph wind out, Jake Bennett on the mound. Tampa’s implied team total is 4.0 and the game total is 8.5. Vilade is a right-handed bat against a lefty starter, which is the platoon edge the lineup card prefers, but his profile (.273 AVG, .386 SLG) doesn’t punish lefties hard enough to push this line. Game Context scored 0 of 3, vs Pitcher Handedness scored 0 of 4 — every contextual lever the model checks for an Over case fails.
Best Line Available
Dabble DFS at -137 is the only price the player feed surfaces. Implied 62%, model says 73.6% — that’s the +12.1% Conf Gap. Negative edge here is the book asking for more juice than the model thinks the line deserves; you’re still positive vs no-vig but it tightens fast above -140. Shop the price.
Recent Track Record on PropsBot’s MLB Hits + Runs + RBIs Picks
PropsBot’s MLB H+R+RBI picks at High Confidence (65–79%) are the top-tier conviction band the model produces. Full pick-by-pick history is published at Performance Methodology — every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome.
How PropsBot Models MLB Hits + Runs + RBIs Props
Multiple AI models trained on pitcher-batter matchup data, ballpark factors, weather conditions, platoon splits, and real-time lineup confirmations score the prop. Their consensus rolls into a single Confidence Score and Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.
More MLB Player Props — May 7, 2026
Today’s full MLB slate is loaded inside PropsBot with Confidence Scores, Edge Scores, and multi-book odds across strikeouts, hits, total bases, RBIs, and pitcher outs. Sign up free to access every pick before first pitch.
More PropsBot Resources
- MLB Picks Today — All Markets
- Strikeout Props Today
- Hits Props Today
- Best Props Today — All Sports
- Free AI Player Prop Generator · What Are Positive EV Props?
- Prop Bet Analyzer · AI Sports Picks — How It Works · AI Betting Bot
- Parlay Calculator · Kelly Criterion Calculator · No-Vig Calculator · All Free Calculators
- PrizePicks Picks Today · Underdog Fantasy Picks Today · Sportsbook Comparison
- Daily Picks Archive · All MLB Picks (newest first) · PropsBot Pricing & Free Trial
Glossary — key terms in this pick
Compare to other AI prop tools
Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Ryan Vilade on MLB.com
- Advanced metrics: Statcast Hard Hit% and barrel rate
- Game info: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox on May 7, 2026
Responsible gambling. This pick is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Bet within your means. Most US states require bettors to be 21+ — check your local legal age before placing any wager.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US national helpline) or visit ncpgambling.org for state-specific resources.
PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 7, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 7, 2026
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (MLB)
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (MLB)
- Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (MLB)
- Dane Myers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (MLB)
See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/
