The top MLB pick today, Friday, June 12, 2026, is Zack Short Under 0.5 Hits (DET @ CLE, 7:11 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 76.0% Confidence with a 0.0% Edge Score, meaning the listed price already reflects fair value, so the case rests on the matchup and the +15.2% Confidence Gap rather than a pricing edge. Best available price: Hard Rock Bet -155.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 7:11 PM ET first pitch.

WindowUnder Hit RateSportsbookLineOdds
L5 / L10 / L2080% / 80% / 75%Hard Rock Bet0.5 Hits-155
Season79%Hard Rock Bet0.5 Hits-155
H2H vs CLE15%Hard Rock Bet0.5 Hits-155

Is Zack Short a good Under 0.5 Hits bet vs Tanner Bibee on June 12?

PropsBot AI player detail screen showing Zack Short Under 0.5 Hits pick with 76.0% Confidence Score, 0.0% Edge Score, and sportsbook odds for DET at CLE on June 12, 2026

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Why Zack Short Under 0.5 Hits vs Tanner Bibee?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 76.0% Confidence Score to Zack Short under 0.5 Hits tonight. That threshold qualifies as High Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 0.0% Edge Score, with a +15.2% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

Zack Short is hitting .167 with a .172 xBA and a 26.9% hard-hit rate — bottom-of-the-barrel contact quality — and he averages barely a quarter of a hit per game. The Under 0.5 Hits is a bet that a light-hitting middle infielder goes hitless against a quality arm, which is the way most of his nights have gone.

Historical Performance at 0.5 Hits

Framed for the Under, the trend is strong: he’s gone hitless in 8 of his last 10 and four of his last five (the L5 ‘Over’ reads 20%, so flip it). The one wrinkle is an 85% head-to-head ‘Over’ against Bibee, but that’s a tiny sample, and a .167 average with a .231 BABIP says the bat hasn’t shown up this year.

Matchup Context: DET @ CLE

Tanner Bibee misses bats and limits hard contact, a brutal draw for a hitter slashing .167 with a 69.4% contact rate. In a game with a modest 8.5 total and Detroit implied for just 4.0 runs on June 12, 2026, the lineup isn’t projected to do much, and Zack Short hits near the bottom of it. The math points to another hitless line.

Best Line Available

Hard Rock Bet has the Under at -155. The Edge Score reads 0.0% — the price already bakes in how unlikely a hit is — so this is a Confidence play, not a value play, riding a 76% read and a +15.2% Confidence Gap. There’s no plus money to chase; if you want it, -155 is the going rate across the MLB books.

How PropsBot Grades MLB Hits Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Hits Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — June 12, 2026

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Today’s Other AI Picks — June 12, 2026

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of June 12, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

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