Is Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Runs Scored a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Aaron Judge runs scored prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Aaron Judge's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best runs scored for Aaron Judge's Over prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Runs Scored — MLB Picks Today, May 29 (71% AI)

By David

Published May 29, 2026

The top MLB pick today, Friday, May 29, 2026, is Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Runs Scored (NYY @ ATH, 9:41 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 70.7% Confidence with a 2.2% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits a couple points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: Hard Rock Bet -160.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 9:41 PM ET first pitch.

Window	Over Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	20% / 30% / 40%	Hard Rock Bet	0.5 Runs	-160
Season	55%	Hard Rock Bet	0.5 Runs	-160
H2H vs ATH	55%	Hard Rock Bet	0.5 Runs	-160

Is Aaron Judge a good Over 0.5 Runs Scored bet vs Luis Severino on May 29?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Friday, May 29, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

Want more picks? PropsBot’s AI generates 50+ scored player prop predictions every day across NBA, MLB, NHL, and NFL. Try PropsBot free →

Why Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Runs Scored vs Luis Severino?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 70.7% Confidence Score to Aaron Judge over 0.5 Runs Scored tonight. That threshold qualifies as High Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 2.2% Edge Score, with a +9.2% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

Aaron Judge reaches base at a .380 clip and the Yankees are laying -1.5 in a game Vegas pegs near 10 runs. Get on that often in a total that high and you come around to score. The catch is the recent log — he’s touched home in just 1 of his last 5. Run-scored props ride on the lineup behind him as much as on him, and NYY’s .699 team OPS is the soft spot.

Historical Performance at 0.5 Runs Scored

The Over 0.5 Runs Scored has cashed 55% on the season and 55% head-to-head, but the short windows cooled off — 40% over his last 20, 30% over his last 10, 20% over his last 5. That’s not his bat slumping; a .554 slug says otherwise. It’s the bottom of the order failing to bring him around. One swing flips it.

Matchup Context: NYY @ ATH

Luis Severino on the bump for the A’s, in a game total of 10.0 that says runs are coming and a 5.9 implied-run number for the Yankees. Judge hits second or third, so he’ll get four-plus cracks on May 29 and only needs to touch home once.

Best Line Available

Hard Rock Bet has the Over at -160, implied 62%. PropsBot’s model lands at a 70.7% Confidence Score with a 2.2% Edge Score and a +9.2% Confidence Gap. Thin edge by our standards, but it’s on the right side of the number. Shop it — anything shorter than -160 and the value’s gone.

How PropsBot Grades MLB Runs Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Runs Scored Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — May 29, 2026

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Glossary — key terms in this pick

Aaron Judge prop history

See the full history of PropsBot’s AI picks on Aaron Judge — every Confidence Score, Edge Score, and graded outcome — at /players/aaron-judge/. Archives update automatically each time a new pick on this player ships.

Compare to other AI prop tools

Sources & Verification

Career stats: Aaron Judge on MLB.com
Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Aaron Judge
Game info: NYY at ATH on May 29, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — May 29, 2026

See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 29, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

Tagged Aaron Judge, AI Picks, MLB, MLB Picks Today, Player Props, Runs Scored