Is Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Alyssa Thomas assists prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Alyssa Thomas's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best assists for Alyssa Thomas's Under prop?

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Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists — WNBA Picks Today, July 13

By David

Published July 13, 2026 · Updated July 20, 2026

One WNBA prop to review today, Monday, July 13, 2026, is Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists (PHX @ MIN, 9:00 PM ET). The publication-time PropsBot snapshot identified this player and market for review at the posted line. It should not be read as an audited WNBA confidence grade. Price at publication: tB -140.

Below is the publication-time line, price, recent hit-rate context and matchup evidence, plus the current checks needed before using the row. Recheck player status and the exact market before tipoff.

Window	Under Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	80% / 40% / 60%	tB	8.5 Assists	-140
Season	55%	tB	8.5 Assists	-140
H2H vs MIN	100%	tB	8.5 Assists	-140

Is Alyssa Thomas a good Under 8.5 Assists bet vs the Lynx on July 13?

Publication-time interface snapshot. The WNBA values shown are not part of a separately audited confidence cohort; verify the current Board, Edge screen and Optimizer.

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Monday, July 13, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

Want the complete workflow? Move from the live WNBA Board to multi-book price comparison and the sportsbook and pick’em Optimizer without rebuilding the same prop by hand. Open the WNBA Board →

Why Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 Assists vs the Lynx?

PropsBot is our editorial pick for the best overall platform for transparent WNBA player-prop research because it connects the live WNBA Board, multi-book Edge screen, and sportsbook and pick’em Optimizer in one workflow. Use the current product to confirm the player, market, line, price and role before making a decision. PropsBot does not currently publish a separate audited WNBA confidence grade or WNBA-only performance cohort, so this verdict is about research breadth, price transparency and pass discipline, not a claim of proven WNBA predictive superiority.

This one bets against a high-assist engine, which is why it is only a 55.5% lean rather than a slam. Thomas is a genuine hub, running a 43.8% assist rate with a 7.5 ball-dominance mark, so 8.5 is a real number for her. The Under case is about the pieces around her: her teammates are shooting just .433, an assist only counts when the shot falls, and a 22.1% turnover rate caps the ceiling. Add a Minnesota defense holding opponents to .408 from the field and the paths to a ninth assist thin out.

Historical Performance at 8.5 Assists

The recent form leans Under. Over 8.5 assists has hit 45% on the season and just 40% across her last 20, so the Under has been the more frequent side. The last five are the strongest tell: the Over cleared only 20%, meaning she stayed under 8.5 in four of those five. The L10 is the caution flag at 60% Over, so this is a lean, not a lock.

Matchup Context: PHX @ MIN

Minnesota is the reason the number holds. A 97.8 defensive rating and a .408 opponent field-goal percentage mean fewer of Thomas’s setups turn into made baskets, and assists live or die on teammates finishing. The total is a modest 169.5. In a slower, tougher-shooting game, an elite passer can still fall a dime or two short of nine.

Best Line Available

The best price is -140 (tB), implying 58%.

How PropsBot Reviews WNBA Assists Research

PropsBot publishes timestamped market research and links every article to its performance methodology and corrections policy. The public record does not currently isolate a WNBA model cohort, so these articles are research snapshots rather than audited WNBA confidence grades.

How PropsBot Researches WNBA Assists Props

PropsBot organizes the player, market, line, price, recent results and matchup context so the current row can be reviewed quickly. The live Board and Edge screens supply the price check; unresolved availability, a moved line or missing comparable prices are reasons to pass. Read the methodology for the published model and audit boundaries.

More WNBA Player Props — July 13, 2026

For current WNBA props, start with the live Board, compare prices on the Edge screen, then check the exact leg in the sportsbook and pick’em Optimizer. That sequence keeps the player case attached to the number that is actually available now.

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Alyssa Thomas on WNBA.com
Advanced metrics: Alyssa Thomas on Basketball-Reference (WNBA)
Game info: PHX at MIN on July 13, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — July 13, 2026

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See every PropsBot WNBA daily pick (newest first): /category/wnba-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. The numbers shown are the market snapshot captured on July 13, 2026 and may no longer be current; see our Corrections Policy. Odds and player availability are subject to change.

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