Reviewed August 3, 2026 by David Reilich.
Quick Answer
Big 12 predictions for 2026: a preseason poll of 16 beat writers, reported by the Deseret News, picked Texas Tech to repeat as champion, with BYU second. Polls aren’t prices — PropsBot publishes market-anchored fair prices and Confidence Scores once Big 12 odds start flowing around August 13.
Big 12 Predictions: The Honest Preseason Frame
Here is what a responsible Big 12 preview can and cannot tell you on August 3.
It can tell you who the people closest to the league expect to win it, which programs changed coaches, which quarterbacks returned and which ones left through the portal. It cannot tell you a trustworthy point spread for BYU–Arizona on September 12, because that market does not fully exist yet. College football odds typically start flowing in earnest around August 13, player props post near kickoff, Week 0 arrives August 22, and the first full Saturday — where the Big 12 slate gets real — is August 29.
So treat every preseason Big 12 prediction you read this week, including the framing below, as context rather than a betting slip. When the numbers post, PropsBot’s college football computer picks and NCAAF picks today pages will show you what the market actually says — de-vigged, converted to fair prices, and graded with a Confidence Score. Until then, the smartest Big 12 bet is patience.
How the Big 12 Media Poll Sees 2026
With the conference no longer running its own official preseason poll, 16 beat writers who cover the league organized one themselves in July. As reported by the Deseret News, the results:
| Rank | Team | Points | First-Place Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 254 | 14 |
| 2 | BYU | 239 | 2 |
| T-3 | Arizona | 207 | — |
| T-3 | Houston | 207 | — |
| 5 | Utah | 198 | — |
| 6 | TCU | 166 | — |
| 7 | Arizona State | 161 | — |
| 8 | Kansas State | 158 | — |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | 124 | — |
| 10 | Baylor | 88 | — |
| 11 | Cincinnati | 85 | — |
| 12 | Kansas | 79 | — |
| 13 | West Virginia | 76 | — |
| 14 | UCF | 68 | — |
| 15 | Colorado | 40 | — |
| 16 | Iowa State | 26 | — |
Two honest caveats before you bet a futures ticket off this table. First, this is a media poll, not a market — it carries no vig, no liability, and no accountability. Second, the league’s own official poll was discontinued in part because it had been reliably wrong in recent seasons. The Big 12 has produced a different champion nearly every year of its current era. Priced correctly, “the field” is usually a more honest position than any single favorite.
Big 12 Team-by-Team Breakdown
Texas Tech — the hunted
The Red Raiders went 12-2 in 2025, won the Big 12, and reached the College Football Playoff, then reloaded through the portal again — including quarterback Brendan Sorsby, one of the most sought-after names available, per reporting by USA Today’s Colorado Buffaloes Wire. Beat writers still picked Tech to repeat by a wide margin, though the Deseret News noted lingering questions under center even after that addition. The league’s official preseason honors underline the roster: seven preseason All-Big 12 selections — the most in the conference — including defensive lineman A.J. Holmes Jr., voted Preseason Defensive Player of the Year. Expect Tech to be priced as the favorite in most Big 12 futures markets when they open. Whether that price holds value is a question for the board, not for July polls.
BYU — settled where it matters
The Cougars took the other two first-place votes and a firm second-place slot. The case, per the Deseret News’ poll coverage: BYU has the league’s most settled quarterback situation with Bear Bachmeier, and returns running back LJ Martin — the 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year and the media’s pick for 2026 Preseason Offensive Player of the Year. The schedule is not soft: Arizona visits Provo in a Week 2 conference opener on September 12, Notre Dame comes to town October 17, and the Holy War is at Utah on November 7. Receiver depth is a real question, with Parker Kingston out for the season as reported by the Deseret News. Martin’s workload makes him one of the most interesting names in the league for rushing yards props all season.
Arizona — the poll’s quiet co-favorite
Arizona tied Houston for third, and the Wildcats may have the league’s best quarterback: Noah Fifita was the preseason All-Big 12 selection at QB as voted by media covering the league, and On3’s 2026 Big 12 preview ranked him the conference’s top quarterback. The September 12 trip to Provo is one of the highest-leverage games on the entire Big 12 calendar — an early data point that will move both programs’ futures pricing. Fifita will be a weekly fixture in PropsBot’s passing yards markets once props start posting.
Houston — from hunters to hunted
Willie Fritz’s Cougars went 10-3 in 2025, beat LSU in the Texas Bowl, and finished No. 22 in the final AP poll — the program’s first 10-win season as a Big 12 member, per Underdog Dynasty’s media-day coverage. Fritz’s own framing at Big 12 media days: Houston is one of the few programs in the country returning the same offensive, defensive, and special-teams coordinators and the same starting quarterback. Only Texas Tech and BYU placed more players on the preseason All-Big 12 team. Continuity is the least glamorous and most underrated preseason edge in a portal era — and the market often prices it late.
Utah — a new era, real questions
Kyle Whittingham stepped down after more than two decades, and longtime defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley takes over, as reported by On3 and USA Today’s Buffaloes Wire. The Utes went 11-2 in 2025 and were picked fifth — a slot that reflects respect for the floor and uncertainty about the transition at once. On3 ranked quarterback Devon Dampier second among Big 12 QBs entering the season. Coaching transitions are exactly the spot where preseason markets can be slow to update in either direction; Utah is a team to watch for line value in September, not a team to marry in a futures market in August.
TCU — life after Hoover
The Horned Frogs were picked sixth. Starting quarterback Josh Hoover departed for Indiana via the portal, per Sports Illustrated’s BYU schedule breakdown, though the Denver Gazette’s Big 12 transfer preview credited Sonny Dykes with a strong portal haul to patch the roster. Safety Jamel Johnson made the preseason All-Big 12 team. Quarterback transitions against a Dykes defensive structure make TCU one of the league’s higher-variance teams — the kind of team where game-by-game markets beat season-long positions.
Arizona State — new faces in Tempe
The Sun Devils, picked seventh, “will feature a lot of new faces in 2026,” per Sports Illustrated. Wide receiver Omarion Miller and defensive lineman C.J. Fite both made the preseason All-Big 12 team, so the top-end talent is there — the question is how quickly a rebuilt roster coheres. Roster churn cuts both ways in September markets: totals and team props on high-turnover teams deserve extra scrutiny, and a pass is a legitimate position.
Kansas State — the Collin Klein reboot
Chris Klieman retired in December after seven seasons, and Kansas State hired program legend Collin Klein — the 2012 Heisman finalist fresh off calling plays at Texas A&M — as head coach, as reported by the Manhattan Mercury. Quarterback Avery Johnson announced he would return, per KWCH, but the Wildcats absorbed heavy roster turnover, including top receiver Jayce Brown’s move to LSU. Picked eighth, K-State is the league’s classic “new coach, returning QB, unknown ceiling” profile. Johnson’s dual-threat role keeps him relevant in both rushing and passing prop markets once the board opens.
Oklahoma State — the biggest rebuild in the league
The Cowboys went 1-11 in 2025, closed the Mike Gundy era, and hired Eric Morris from North Texas — bringing quarterback Drew Mestemaker with him, per USA Today’s Buffaloes Wire and Big 12 media reporting. Mestemaker was voted the league’s Preseason Newcomer of the Year, and Oklahoma State added more than 50 portal players. Ninth in the poll is a statement of faith in the rebuild’s speed. First-year regimes with massive portal classes are where win-total disagreements between books tend to be widest — which is where shoppers get paid.
Baylor — continuity under pressure
Dave Aranda returns despite open hot-seat discussion, per Sports Illustrated, and the Bears will be led by Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway. Baylor went 5-7 in 2025 and saw significant portal departures, including running back Bryson Washington, per USA Today. Picked tenth, Baylor is a pure quarterback bet: if Lagway’s talent translates, the Bears outperform the slot; if not, the hot-seat narrative becomes the season. Lagway’s arm will draw attention in longest reception and passing markets from Week 1.
The rest of the league
Cincinnati (11th) put two offensive linemen on the preseason All-Big 12 team. Kansas (12th) breaks in a new starting quarterback after Jalon Daniels departed for the NFL, per USA Today. West Virginia (13th) has preseason All-Big 12 running back Cam Cook. UCF (14th) and Colorado (15th) drew modest support, and Iowa State (16th) was picked last after what Sports Illustrated described as the heaviest transfer-portal losses of any power-conference roster. A last-place media-poll slot with that much roster churn is a profile where early-season markets are genuinely hard to set — expect soft lines and respect them accordingly.
Big 12 Win Totals: Framing Without Invented Numbers
Books have not hung a full board of 2026 Big 12 win totals yet, and we are not going to pretend they have. When they post, the disciplined way to attack them is comparative, not predictive: find where a book’s number disagrees with the de-vigged market consensus, then decide whether the gap is information or noise. Three Big 12 profiles historically create the widest book-to-book disagreement:
- New-head-coach teams (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State) — markets struggle to price scheme and staff transitions.
- Portal-heavy rebuilds (Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Arizona State) — 50-plus new players means priors barely apply.
- Quarterback-swap teams (TCU, Baylor, Kansas) — one position drives the whole number.
Our college football win totals page tracks the market as it opens, and the same framework applies across the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC previews. For the futures shelf beyond the conference race, see Heisman odds and college football championship odds.
Big 12 Markets to Watch on PropsBot
PropsBot’s NCAAF coverage is live in-app now, built on 78,465 clean 2025 gamelogs across roughly 29,600 players including FCS. When the Big 12 season starts, the board covers 13 player markets — passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, anytime touchdown scorer, longest reception, and more — each graded by converting the market’s de-vigged consensus into a fair price and a Confidence Score. A pass is always an acceptable result, and the board will tell you so.
Big 12-specific angles to have on your radar:
- LJ Martin rushing props. The league’s reigning Player of the Year behind a settled offense — expect the market to price him aggressively from Week 1.
- Fifita vs. Dampier passing markets. On3’s top two Big 12 quarterbacks, in very different offensive situations.
- Lagway’s deep-ball profile. Baylor’s transfer QB will move longest-reception and passing-yards numbers.
- Scorer markets in Provo and Lubbock. High-tempo offenses make anytime touchdown scorer props and the touchdown scorer prop family some of the most-bet Big 12 markets every Saturday.
- Week 2 in Provo. BYU–Arizona on September 12 is the conference’s first true information game of 2026. Circle it on the NCAAF Week 1 picks radar and watch how the opener’s price moves once odds flow around August 13.
Track it all from the NCAAF picks hub, the daily NCAAF player props today board, our college football player props overview, the AI college football picks page, and CFB betting splits for the market side of the story.
What to Confirm Before Betting Big 12 Futures
- Has the market actually opened? Most books won’t carry a full Big 12 board until mid-August. Early numbers are often low-limit and soft.
- Quarterback confirmation. Texas Tech’s situation under center, Baylor’s Lagway integration, and TCU’s Hoover replacement are all unresolved until camp depth charts firm up.
- Portal paperwork. Eligibility and two-time-transfer rulings can still move rosters in August.
- The price, not the team. A good team at a bad number is a bad bet. Compare against fair, de-vigged prices before anything else.
- Your stake discipline. Futures tie up bankroll for months, and every wager can lose — including the “safe” favorite.
How PropsBot Researches Big 12 Markets
PropsBot’s process is market-anchored, not vibe-anchored. We take the live odds board, remove the vig to build a true market consensus, convert that consensus into fair prices, and then grade any candidate bet with a Confidence Score that reflects how much edge actually exists after the market has spoken. Under the hood sits a training base of 78,465 clean 2025 gamelogs covering roughly 29,600 players across FBS and FCS, with 13 player markets tracked per game. Preseason, when game markets barely exist, that system does something most preview content won’t: it waits. When the Big 12 board opens around August 13, the picks pages above will reflect real prices — and when no edge exists at a real price, the board says pass.
Big 12 Predictions FAQ
Who is predicted to win the Big 12 in 2026?
Texas Tech. In a July preseason poll of 16 Big 12 beat writers reported by the Deseret News, the Red Raiders received 14 of 16 first-place votes after winning the 2025 conference title and reaching the College Football Playoff. BYU received the other two first-place votes and was picked second, with Arizona and Houston tied for third. PropsBot does not publish invented championship probabilities — we grade bets against de-vigged market prices once odds are live.
When do 2026 Big 12 odds come out?
College football game odds typically begin flowing in earnest around August 13, with player props posting near kickoff for each game. Week 0 is August 22, and the first full Saturday slate — including the bulk of Big 12 openers — is August 29. Conference futures and some win totals appear earlier at select books, usually with lower limits.
Does PropsBot publish Big 12 picks?
Yes — once real markets exist. Our NCAAF coverage is already live in-app, and the picks hub, computer picks, and player props pages update as odds post. Every pick is market-anchored: we de-vig the consensus, compute a fair price, and assign a Confidence Score. When the price offers no edge, the published answer is a pass, not a forced pick.
What Big 12 player props will PropsBot cover this season?
Thirteen player markets per game, including passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, anytime touchdown scorer, longest reception, and more — all built on 78,465 clean 2025 gamelogs across roughly 29,600 players. Big 12 names to watch early include LJ Martin (BYU), Noah Fifita (Arizona), Devon Dampier (Utah), DJ Lagway (Baylor), and Avery Johnson (Kansas State).
Where can I find Big 12 win totals for 2026?
Full win-total boards post at sportsbooks in August. PropsBot’s college football win totals page tracks the market as it opens and frames each number against de-vigged consensus rather than hype — particularly useful in the Big 12, where coaching changes at Utah, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State make early numbers unusually soft.
Are Big 12 futures bets a good idea before Week 1?
Sometimes — but only at the right price. Preseason futures tie up your stake for months, carry heavy vig compared to weekly markets, and remain exposed to August camp news like quarterback decisions and injuries. Texas Tech may well repeat, but “the favorite at a bad number” is still a losing bet over time. Every wager can lose; compare any futures price against fair market value before placing it.
Ready for the real numbers? The PropsBot NCAAF board is live in-app now — fair prices, Confidence Scores, and honest passes across all 13 player markets. Open the PropsBot board and see what the market actually says when Big 12 lines drop.
