One week of football is not a trend. It is, however, the only real evidence we have — and the sportsbooks know it too, which is why Week 2 lines are the strangest of the season. Some are still priced on August depth charts. Some have over-corrected to Sunday’s box score. The gap between the two is where this week’s edges live.
Here’s how we’re reading it, game by game, with the opening numbers where they’re posted and the model’s confidence where it has scored the number. Most Monday openers are single-book lines the model hasn’t scored yet; those fill in as sportsbook prices post, and we refresh this page on Saturday. Everything below starts from what actually happened in Week 1, not from what we expected in August.
The three lessons from Week 1 we’re carrying into Week 2
1. Follow the touches, not the name. (The full game-by-game read is in the Week 1 recap.) The receivers who paid were the ones who got fed — Chris Olave (13 targets), Amon-Ra St. Brown (14), Khalil Shakir (12) — and the stars who didn’t were expensive fades: Ja’Marr Chase went for 12 yards, Jordan Addison and Kyle Pitts for zero. Week 1 target shares are the single most useful number on the board right now, because the books still price on reputation.
2. Second backs are underpriced until they aren’t. Kaelon Black’s rushing line opened at 9.5 last week; he ran for 65. Kyle Monangai went for 100 as Chicago’s second back. Braelon Allen got 10 carries in New York. Books will adjust some of those — but not all, and not all the way.
3. Bell-cows are the safest thing on the board. Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty and Bijan Robinson each cleared their combined-yardage numbers by 50 or more. Their Week 2 rushing openers all sit below their Week 1 totals, and they’re still the most stable projections we have.
Where the model has a read so far
PropsBot’s model is the confidence score: a number for each side of a prop, and we only call something a lean when one side is 60 or higher. As of Monday night (11:31 p.m. ET, Sep 14) the model has scored ten Week 2 props at that level, up from six on Monday afternoon; two of the afternoon’s reads, Jameson Williams over and Amon-Ra St. Brown under, fell to 52 when their lines moved and are off the list. The rest of the board is single-book openers it hasn’t graded yet; those get scored as sportsbook prices post, and this page is refreshed Saturday.
- Derrick Henry anytime touchdown — confidence 66, opened −205 (Saints at Ravens).
- Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown — confidence 64, opened −300 (Lions at Bills).
- Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown — confidence 64, opened −235 (Dolphins at 49ers).
- Bryce Young over 213.5 passing yards — confidence 64 (Panthers at Falcons).
- D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown — confidence 63, opened −150 (Vikings at Bears).
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 52.5 rushing yards — confidence 62 (Commanders at Cowboys).
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown — confidence 61, opened −200 (Panthers at Falcons).
- Malik Willis under 38.5 rushing yards — confidence 61 (Dolphins at 49ers).
- George Pickens under 67.5 receiving yards — confidence 61 (Commanders at Cowboys).
- MarShawn Lloyd under 47.5 rushing yards — confidence 61 (Packers at Jets).
Thursday night: Lions at Bills
The week opens with the two most productive offenses we saw on Sunday. Josh Allen threw for 334 and accounted for four touchdowns against Houston; Jared Goff was quieter (206 yards) because Jahmyr Gibbs did the heavy lifting with 29 carries for 156.
Players to target
- Jahmyr Gibbs — rushing yards, opened 87.5. The opener sits 68 yards under what he just did. Twenty-nine carries is a workload, not a fluke; the only question is whether Detroit can keep it close enough to keep handing him the ball. The rushing-yards number isn’t scored yet, but the model has him at 64 confidence to score a touchdown (opened −245, now −300). Rushing attempts (18.5) and longest rush (17.5) opened alongside it.
- Josh Allen — passing yards, opened 245.5. He cleared this by nearly 90 yards on 29 attempts last week, and Buffalo showed three receivers who can each go for 100. The model’s score on this number is a coin flip so far (43 over, 57 under) — a line to watch, not a lean.
- Dalton Kincaid — longest reception, opened 20.5. He had a 40-yarder and 130 yards on Sunday. His receiving yards opened at 51.5; the model hasn’t separated the two sides on either number yet.
- Jameson Williams — receiving yards, opened 49.5, now 50.5. The model had him at 63 on the over at the opener; the one-yard move took it to a coin flip (52). He had only 45 last week on nine targets, so the interest is the targets, not the result — watch the number rather than chase it.
The line to respect: Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards opened at 75.5 and had already moved to 79.5 by Monday night. He caught 10 balls with two touchdowns but for only 67 yards. The model’s confidence on the under was 63 at the 75.5 opener; at 79.5 it is a coin flip (52), so this is a number to watch, not a lean.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
Saints at Ravens
Tyler Shough threw 56 times in Week 1. That will not happen every week, but a Saints team that just lost a 30–31 shootout, facing a Ravens offense that hung 41 on Indianapolis, is likely to be throwing again. Shough’s passing line opened at 242.5, and Chris Olave, who caught 10 for 182, is the first name we’d check when his receiving line posts.
- Derrick Henry — rushing yards, opened 82.5. He ran for 144 and three scores against the Colts; the opener sits 60 yards under what he just did. The yardage number isn’t scored yet; the model has him at 66 confidence to score (opened −200, now −205).
- Tyler Shough — rushing yards, opened 19.5. He ran four times for 8 yards while throwing 56 passes. A pocket passer’s rushing line is the market’s laziest number.
Vikings at Bears
Chicago scored 59. Caleb Williams threw for 269 and ran for 65 and two touchdowns; D’Andre Swift had 124 and three scores; Kyle Monangai added 100. Minnesota, for its part, put up 39 on Green Bay with Justin Jefferson catching two touchdowns.
- Caleb Williams — passing yards, opened 239.5. He cleared it on 29 attempts against Carolina. Not scored yet.
- D’Andre Swift — rushing yards, opened 64.5. The market has not caught up to a three-touchdown, 124-yard day. Watch how the number moves through the week; if it’s still in the 60s on Sunday morning, that’s the one. The model has him at 63 confidence to score (opened −145, now −150).
- Williams’s rushing line opened at 21.5 after a 65-yard day. It isn’t scored yet, and one big rushing day rarely changes a quarterback’s usage.
Bengals at Texans
Joe Burrow threw for 254 and Cincinnati scored 33 without Ja’Marr Chase doing anything (12 yards). That doesn’t repeat — Chase’s targets will come back — but the Texans’ David Montgomery (20 carries, 60 yards, two touchdowns) is the more interesting line.
- David Montgomery — rushing yards, opened 57.5. Twenty carries produced 60 yards; he’s scoring, not breaking runs.
- Chase Brown — rushing yards, opened 55.5. Sixteen carries for 56 last week. The number is priced exactly to his Week 1; no edge yet.
Eagles at Titans
Philadelphia beat Washington by two with Jalen Hurts throwing three touchdowns on only 14 completions. Tennessee managed 140 passing yards against the Jets.
- Saquon Barkley — rushing yards, opened 78.5. Eighty-three on 15 carries against Washington, and a Titans defense that just let Breece Hall go for 102.
Steelers at Patriots
Aaron Rodgers threw 40 times for 221. Drake Maye threw three interceptions in Seattle.
- Drake Maye — passing yards, opened 227.5. He had 178 on 33 attempts last week, and the Steelers just held Atlanta to 143 passing yards.
- Rico Dowdle — rushing yards, opened 41.5. He had 15 yards on 8 carries; Jaylen Warren (10 for 46) took the bigger share. Both lines opened in the 40s. We’d look at Warren over Dowdle.
Browns at Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield was efficient (23 of 28) and Bucky Irving touched the ball 15 times for 93 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Cleveland scored 10.
- Bucky Irving — rushing yards, opened 59.5. Only eight carries last week, but seven catches. If his rushing share grows against a Browns defense that just gave up 34, this number is low. Check his receiving line when it posts — that’s where the Week 1 evidence actually is.
Panthers at Falcons
Carolina gave up 59 and still scored 37 — Bryce Young threw for 361 and Jalen Coker caught 8 for 138 and two touchdowns. Bijan Robinson had 173 yards from scrimmage in a loss.
- Bijan Robinson — rushing yards, opened 78.5. He had 83 rushing and 90 receiving last week against Pittsburgh; against a Carolina defense that just allowed 124 to Swift and 100 to Monangai in the same game, the combined-yardage number will be the one to watch when it posts. The model has him at 61 confidence to score (opened −205, now −200).
- Bryce Young — passing yards, opened 212.5, now 213.5. After 361 that looks light, but Atlanta’s defense isn’t Chicago’s. Once the number was scored, the model landed at 64 on the over.
Packers at Jets
Jordan Love threw for 387 — on 42 attempts, half of them incomplete. Christian Watson had 147 and two scores. The Jets won 23–10 on Geno Smith’s 19-of-24 and Breece Hall’s 102 rushing yards.
- Breece Hall — rushing yards, opened 62.5. Twenty-two carries and 102 yards. The line is under his Week 1 by 40; the Packers’ defense just gave up 39 points.
- Christian Watson — his receiving line hasn’t posted yet. When it does, that’s the first thing we check in this game.
Sunday, 4:05 and 4:25 ET
Raiders at Chargers
Ashton Jeanty did everything for Las Vegas: 102 rushing, 45 receiving, two touchdowns. Justin Herbert threw for 209 with an interception in a 26–14 loss to Arizona.
- Ashton Jeanty — rushing yards, opened 63.5. The opener is 40 yards under his Week 1 rushing total. His combined line cleared by 64 last week; when the rushing-plus-receiving number posts, that’s the one.
- Justin Herbert — passing yards, opened 234.5. He had 209 against Arizona and Ladd McConkey was the only receiver who did anything.
Jaguars at Broncos
Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdowns on 23 attempts. Denver plays tonight against Kansas City, so we’ll know more about their side by Tuesday.
- Trevor Lawrence — rushing yards, opened 16.5. Three rushing yards last week. Same story as Shough — a passer’s rushing line is where the market doesn’t pay attention.
Dolphins at 49ers
Purdy threw three touchdowns on 205 yards; San Francisco won 27–7 without a single 75-yard receiver. Miami scored 13.
- Kaelon Black — the 49ers’ second back, 14 carries for 65 last week off a 9.5 line. His Week 2 rushing line hasn’t posted yet. When it does, check whether the book has priced 14 carries or 4. Christian McCaffrey’s line (10 carries, 68 yards last week) will tell you the same story from the other side.
- De’Von Achane — rushing yards, opened 59.5. Thirty-six yards on 11 carries against the Raiders. The model faded him last week and it paid; the opener hasn’t moved much.
Commanders at Cowboys
Jayden Daniels threw two touchdowns on 164 yards; Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for 63 and a score. Dak Prescott had 175 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the loss to New York.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt — rushing yards, opened 48.5, now 52.5. Sixteen carries for 63 in Week 1, and the Cowboys just let Cam Skattebo go for 81. The book moved the number up four yards and the model scored the higher line at 62 on the under.
- Dak Prescott — passing yards, opened 262.5. That’s the highest quarterback line on the early board, and he threw for 175 last week. We’d want a reason before backing the over.
Seahawks at Cardinals
Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 8 for 122 in Seattle’s win; Trey McBride caught 9 for 95 and a touchdown in Arizona’s. Both were their team’s clear first read.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — receiving yards, opened 83.5. Eleven targets, 122 yards. Nobody else in Seattle’s passing game topped 35.
- Trey McBride — his receiving line posts later this week. He cleared 56.5 by nearly 40 last week; watch where the book sets it.
- Jacoby Brissett — passing yards, opened 221.5. He threw for 277 on 37 attempts against the Chargers. Not scored yet, but the number looks a touch low against a Seattle defense that just held New England to 178.
Sunday night: Colts at Chiefs
Jonathan Taylor ran for 98 and two touchdowns in a loss where Baltimore scored 41. Kansas City plays tonight; we’ll update this section once that box score is in.
- Jonathan Taylor — rushing yards, opened 79.5. Nineteen carries for 98 in a game Indianapolis trailed most of the way. If the Colts can keep this one closer, the volume goes up, not down.
Monday night: Giants at Rams
Jaxson Dart threw three touchdowns and ran for 54 in the Giants’ win over Dallas; Isaiah Likely caught all eight of his targets for two of those scores. Matthew Stafford’s Rams managed 155 passing yards and no touchdowns against San Francisco.
- Cam Skattebo — rushing yards, opened 48.5. Eighteen carries for 81 and a touchdown against Dallas. The line is 33 yards under that.
- Puka Nacua — receiving yards, opened 91.5. He had 74 on nine targets in a game the Rams couldn’t move the ball. Not scored yet; the number reflects his reputation more than his Week 1.
- Isaiah Likely — 8-for-8 on targets. His receiving line hasn’t posted. When it does, it’s the first thing we check in this game.
How to use this
Openers move. Every number above is the Monday capture (afternoon openers, model reads updated at 11:31 p.m. ET); by Sunday the sharp books will have adjusted most of them, and some of these edges will be gone while new ones appear. The live NFL board updates every few minutes with the best available price across 25+ books and the model’s current confidence on both sides — that’s where the actual decision gets made.
What doesn’t change between now and kickoff is the Week 1 evidence: who got the touches, who got fed, and who was a name without a role. Start there. Full schedule and matchup research: Week 2 picks. Start monthly to see the board.
Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
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