Week 1 is the week the league lies to you. Rosters have turned over, coordinators have new toys, and half of what we thought we knew in August gets corrected by Sunday night. That’s exactly why it’s worth writing down what actually happened — not the vibes, the numbers — before the market adjusts and the edges close.
Below is every game from Wednesday’s opener through Sunday night, the stat lines that mattered, and, where our model leaned a side before kickoff and the game agreed, we’ll show you the call. Monday night’s Broncos–Chiefs game gets added once the box score is final.
Wednesday night — opening night
Patriots 10, Seahawks 13
The opener was a rock fight. Seattle’s Drew Lock managed it cleanly — 16 of 22 for 187 yards and a touchdown, no turnovers — while Drake Maye’s night in New England colors went the other way: 23 of 33 for 178 yards, one score and three interceptions. When one quarterback throws three picks in a three-point game, that’s the game.
The performance: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 8 catches on 11 targets for 122 yards and the touchdown, including a 45-yarder. Nobody else in the game cracked 55 receiving yards.
Where the model was right: It leaned under on Rashid Shaheed’s receiving line (32.5) and he finished with 4 yards on one catch. It also liked Mack Hollins over a modest 8.5 receiving yards in the Patriots’ passing game; he went for 51.
Thursday night — Melbourne
49ers 27, Rams 7
San Francisco’s offense didn’t need a big day from anyone — it needed touchdowns from everyone. Brock Purdy went 25 of 34 for 205 yards and three scores, spread across Demarcus Robinson (two catches, 50 yards), Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. Matthew Stafford’s Rams managed 155 passing yards and no touchdowns.
The performance: Kaelon Black, the 49ers’ second back, out-carried Christian McCaffrey 14 to 10 and turned it into 65 yards.
Where the model was right: This is the one we’ll point at all week. The model leaned over on Black’s rushing line, which was sitting at 9.5 yards at kickoff. He ran for 65. Lines like that exist because books price backups as backups; the model saw a share of the workload the market hadn’t.
Sunday early window
Ravens 41, Colts 23
Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards on just 25 attempts and Derrick Henry did the rest: 24 carries, 144 yards, three touchdowns. Zay Flowers caught five balls for 150 yards, 54 of them on one play. Jonathan Taylor’s 98 yards and two scores were good — they just weren’t enough against that.
Where the model was right: It leaned over on Henry’s rushing-plus-receiving line of 91.5. He cleared it by 71 yards. It also leaned under on Tyler Warren’s receiving line (47.5) — he caught one pass for 13 yards.
Bills 36, Texans 31
Josh Allen accounted for four touchdowns — two through the air on 334 passing yards, two more on the ground — and the Bills needed all of them. Three Buffalo receivers hit 100 yards: Dalton Kincaid (5 for 130), Khalil Shakir (8 for 100 on 12 targets) and DJ Moore (5 for 100 and a score). C.J. Stroud threw for 274 and two touchdowns; David Montgomery punched in two on the ground.
Where the model was right: Two calls in Buffalo’s passing game. It leaned over on Shakir’s 36.5 receiving yards (he had 100) and over on Kincaid’s longest reception at 18.5 (his long went 40). It also liked Houston’s Xavier Hutchinson over 17.5 receiving yards; he finished with 32.
Jets 23, Titans 10
Geno Smith was efficient — 19 of 24, 215 yards, no mistakes — and Breece Hall carried the offense with 22 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown. Garrett Wilson led the receivers with 79 yards; Adonai Mitchell added 60 on three catches, including a 40-yarder. Cam Ward’s Titans managed 140 passing yards.
Where the model was right: It leaned under on Tony Pollard’s receiving yards (9.5); he finished with negative one. It also leaned over on Braelon Allen’s rushing attempts at 5.5 — he got 10 carries behind Hall.
Buccaneers 27, Bengals 33
Joe Burrow went 25 of 35 for 254 yards, and the touchdowns came from unexpected places: Mike Gesicki caught 5 for 78 and a score, Chase Brown ran one in, and Ja’Marr Chase — the name everyone expected to headline this box score — finished with 12 receiving yards. Baker Mayfield was sharp (23 of 28, 216) and Bucky Irving did a little of everything: 45 rushing yards, a touchdown, and seven catches for 48.
Where the model was right: The call of the day in Cincinnati was the under on Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving line (85.5). He had 12. On the other side, it leaned over on Gesicki at 21.5 receiving yards and he more than tripled it.
Browns 10, Jaguars 34
Trevor Lawrence’s afternoon: 18 of 23, 245 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions. Parker Washington (5 for 83 and a score) and Jakobi Meyers (two catches for 40 yards and a touchdown) were the beneficiaries. Bhayshul Tuten led Jacksonville’s ground game with 66 yards. Deshaun Watson threw for 205 for Cleveland; Denzel Boston’s two catches for 59 yards and a touchdown, including a 46-yarder, were the Browns’ highlight.
Where the model was right: It leaned over on Parker Washington’s 52.5 receiving yards (83) and over on Meyers’s longest reception at 16.5 (32).
Falcons 13, Steelers 20
Aaron Rodgers threw 40 times for 221 yards and a touchdown to Pat Freiermuth. Atlanta’s problem wasn’t Bijan Robinson — he had 83 rushing yards and 90 receiving yards with a touchdown, 173 from scrimmage — it was Cooper Rush’s 12-of-22, two-interception day at quarterback.
Where the model was right: It leaned over on Freiermuth’s 28.5 receiving yards (he had 46 and the score), under on Rico Dowdle’s rushing line of 45.5 (15 yards on 8 carries), and under on Kyle Pitts’s 4.5 receptions — he was held without a catch.
Saints 30, Lions 31
The game of the week, and it came down to a point. Tyler Shough threw 56 passes for the Saints — 35 completions, 410 yards, three touchdowns — and Chris Olave caught 10 of them for 182. Detroit answered with Jahmyr Gibbs: 29 carries, 156 yards, two touchdowns, while Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 10 balls with two scores of his own.
Where the model was right: Volume was the story and the model saw it coming — it leaned over on Shough’s completions at 21.5, and he had 35.
Bears 59, Panthers 37
Ninety-six points. Chicago’s ground game was absurd: D’Andre Swift 124 yards and three touchdowns, Kyle Monangai 100 yards and a score, and Caleb Williams 65 rushing yards and two more touchdowns on top of 269 passing yards. Carolina kept pace for a while through Bryce Young’s 361 yards and Jalen Coker’s 8-catch, 138-yard, two-touchdown day.
Where the model was right: It leaned over on Caleb Williams’s rushing line of 19.5 — he ran for 65 — and over on his rushing attempts at 4.5 (10). It also leaned over on Jalen Coker at 41.5 receiving yards (138) and Cole Kmet at 13.5 (35). Four calls, four hits, in the highest-scoring game of the week.
Sunday late window
Dolphins 13, Raiders 27
Ashton Jeanty was the whole offense for Las Vegas: 23 carries for 102 yards plus six catches for 45 and two receiving touchdowns. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns on just 160 yards (and two interceptions). Miami’s Malik Willis threw for 220 and ran for a score; Caleb Douglas led the Dolphins with 94 receiving yards.
Where the model was right: It leaned over on Jeanty’s rushing-plus-receiving line of 82.5 — he finished with 147 — and under on De’Von Achane’s rushing yards at 69.5 (36 on 11 carries). It also had Tre Tucker under 45.5 receiving yards; he had 27.
Cardinals 26, Chargers 14
Jacoby Brissett went 27 of 37 for 277 and Trey McBride was his favorite target: 9 catches, 95 yards, a touchdown. Kendrick Bourne caught all eight of his targets for 75. Justin Herbert managed 209 yards and threw an interception; Ladd McConkey (5 for 82 and a score) was the Chargers’ lone bright spot.
Where the model was right: It leaned over on McBride’s 56.5 receiving yards (95), under on Quentin Johnston’s 42.5 (17), and under on Marvin Harrison Jr.’s receptions at 3.5 (one catch).
Commanders 22, Eagles 24
Jalen Hurts only completed 14 passes, but three of them were touchdowns — two to Dallas Goedert (4 catches, 77 yards) and one to Dontayvion Wicks, who also had a 64-yard catch. Saquon Barkley ran for 83. Jayden Daniels threw two touchdowns on 164 yards; Jacory Croskey-Merritt led Washington with 63 rushing yards and a score.
Where the model was right: It leaned over on Goedert’s 38.5 receiving yards (77 and two scores) and over on Daniels’s passing touchdowns at 0.5 (he threw two).
Packers 22, Vikings 39
Jordan Love threw for 387 yards — but on 42 attempts, with 21 completions. Christian Watson caught six for 147 and two touchdowns, including an 81-yarder; Matthew Golden added 95. Minnesota won it with balance: Carson Wentz went 12 of 19 for three touchdowns, Justin Jefferson caught 8 for 92 and two scores, and Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones each ran one in.
Where the model was right: It leaned under on Jordan Addison’s receiving line (42.5); he was held without a catch. It also had MarShawn Lloyd under 10.5 receiving yards and Aaron Jones under 2.5 receptions — both finished at zero.
Sunday night
Cowboys 20, Giants 28
Jaxson Dart went 23 of 29 for 230 yards and three touchdowns and added 54 yards on the ground. Isaiah Likely caught all eight of his targets for 78 yards and two of those scores; Cam Skattebo ran for 81 and a touchdown. Dak Prescott threw for 175 with two touchdowns and a pick; CeeDee Lamb had 44 yards and a score.
Where the model was right: It leaned under on Skattebo’s receptions at 2.5 — Dart never threw him the ball — and over on Devin Singletary’s rushing yards at 8.5 (16).
What Week 1 told us
A few things stood out across all 15 box scores, and they’re the threads we’ll pull on in this week’s preview:
- Volume beat talent. The biggest passing days belonged to quarterbacks who threw the most (Shough 56 attempts, Love 42, Rodgers 40), not the biggest names. The receiving yardage followed the targets — Olave had 13, Shakir 12, St. Brown 14.
- Backup and secondary backs were badly underpriced. Kaelon Black (9.5 line, 65 yards), Kyle Monangai (100 yards), Braelon Allen (10 carries). Books set Week 1 lines on depth charts; games are played on snap counts.
- The unders on “name” receivers who weren’t the target hog hit hard. Ja’Marr Chase (12 yards), Jordan Addison (0), Kyle Pitts (0), Quentin Johnston (17). Reputation is priced in; role isn’t always.
- Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Ashton Jeanty all cleared their combined-yardage lines by 50+. Bell-cow backs in Week 1 are the most stable thing on the board.
From the community
Members tagged us with their Week 1 slips on Discord. Three of them, cropped to the tickets: a two-leg anytime-touchdown parlay on Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor — both named above — a three-pick entry on Goff, Taylor and Henry, and a Sharp Tab three-pick on the Bears, Lions and Ravens. Their bets, their stakes; we just liked seeing the board show up on a ticket.
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