NFL Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Cowboys at Texans
Cowboys vs Texans kicks off Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 p.m. ET with a board total of 47.5 and Houston a 2.5-point favorite. There is no 60+ read on this card: the model’s top-scored prop is Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 7.5 kicking points at 57, three points under the bar.
The line
At the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET board capture, the game total was 47.5 and the spread stamp read Cowboys +2.5, making Houston a 2.5-point favorite. The board carried 195 props for this game, 31 with a model score. Lines move until kickoff; the live NFL board has current numbers.
Model reads
The six highest-scored props on this card at capture. PropsBot counts a prop as a read only at a confidence of 60 or higher. None of the six clears it, so this card has no read.
| Player | Prop | Price (book) | Confidence | 60+ read? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) | Over 7.5 kicking points | −140 Fliff | 57 | No (below 60) |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | Anytime TD (Yes) | −150 Fliff | 55 | No (below 60) |
| David Montgomery (HOU) | Anytime TD (Yes) | −120 BetMGM | 50 | No (below 60) |
| Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) | Under 7.5 kicking points | −105 Fliff | 44 | No (below 60) |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +130 BetMGM | 43 | No (below 60) |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +125 BetMGM | 42 | No (below 60) |
Matchup context
Dallas has the worst defense in the league by EPA per play through Week 3, allowing 179.7 rushing yards per game (second-most) and letting opponents convert 20 of 34 third downs, also the worst rate. Running backs have 4 touchdowns against the Cowboys, tied for fourth-most — the defense David Montgomery (50) faces. Houston has allowed no running back touchdowns and 86.7 rushing yards per game (fifth-fewest), but 5 wide receiver touchdowns, tied for third-most. Those are the numbers Javonte Williams (55) and CeeDee Lamb (43) run into.
Defense figures: 2026 season through Week 3 (nflverse play-by-play).
Other props on the card
Fairbairn appears on both sides: Over 7.5 kicking points at 57 (−140) and Under 7.5 at 44 (−105), both at Fliff. The model prefers the over, but not by enough for a read. The rest of the top six are anytime touchdowns: Williams 55 (−150 Fliff), then Montgomery 50 (−120), Lamb 43 (+130) and Nico Collins 42 (+125), all at BetMGM. The board scored 31 of 195 props for this game.
FAQ
Is there a PropsBot pick for Cowboys vs Texans?
Not at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture. The top-scored prop is Ka’imi Fairbairn Over 7.5 kicking points at 57, below the 60 bar.
Over or under on Ka’imi Fairbairn’s kicking points?
The model scores the over at 57 (-140) and the under at 44 (-105), both at Fliff. It prefers the over, but neither side reaches 60.
What are the Cowboys vs Texans spread and total?
Total 47.5 and a spread stamp of Cowboys +2.5, so Houston is a 2.5-point favorite at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture.
More Week 4: NFL Week 4 picks · anytime touchdown scorer picks · NFL defense rankings · defense vs position · live NFL board
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