NFL Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:05 p.m. ET · Dolphins at Vikings
Dolphins vs Vikings kicks off Sunday, October 4 at 4:05 p.m. ET with a board total of 38.5 and Minnesota an 11-point favorite. There is no 60+ read on this card: the model’s top-scored prop, Aaron Jones to score an anytime touchdown, sits at 50, and five of the top six are Vikings.
David’s touchdown pick for this game: Justin Jefferson (+140) if healthy, otherwise Jordan Addison (+150). Prices as quoted in his Week 4 touchdown video. Every game’s TD pick and his 2+ list →
The line
At the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET board capture, the game total was 38.5 and the spread stamp read Dolphins +11, making Minnesota an 11-point favorite. The board carried 114 props for this game, 27 with a model score. Lines move until kickoff; the live NFL board has current numbers.
Model reads
The six highest-scored props on this card at capture. PropsBot counts a prop as a read only at a confidence of 60 or higher. None of the six clears it, so this card has no read.
| Player | Prop | Price (book) | Confidence | 60+ read? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones (MIN) | Anytime TD (Yes) | −124 Caesars | 50 | No (below 60) |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | Anytime TD (Yes) | −165 Fanatics | 50 | No (below 60) |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +140 Fanatics | 37 | No (below 60) |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +155 Fanatics | 34 | No (below 60) |
| Jauan Jennings (MIN) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +215 Fanatics | 29 | No (below 60) |
| Malik Washington (MIA) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +240 Fanatics | 28 | No (below 60) |
Matchup context
Minnesota has the best defense in the league by EPA per play through Week 3: 13.7 points allowed per game (second-fewest), a league-high 14 sacks and one touchdown allowed on 9 red-zone trips. Miami’s defense sits near the bottom, with no sacks, the worst EPA per pass play in the league and 7 running back touchdowns allowed, the most of any team. That is the defense Jones faces.
Defense figures: 2026 season through Week 3 (nflverse play-by-play).
Other props on the card
Jordan Addison carries the shortest price of the six at −165 (Fanatics) and also scores 50, level with Jones at −124 (Caesars). Behind them, all at Fanatics: Justin Jefferson 37 (+140), T.J. Hockenson 34 (+155), Jauan Jennings 29 (+215) and Malik Washington, the only Dolphin in the top six, at 28 (+240). None is a read. Only 27 of 114 props on the board for this game carry a model score.
FAQ
Is there a PropsBot pick for Dolphins vs Vikings?
Not at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture. The top-scored prop is Aaron Jones anytime TD at 50 (-124 at Caesars), well below the 60 bar.
Is Justin Jefferson an anytime TD read against Miami?
No. Jefferson’s anytime TD scores 37 at +140 (Fanatics).
What are the Dolphins vs Vikings spread and total?
Total 38.5 and a spread stamp of Dolphins +11, so Minnesota is an 11-point favorite at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture.
More Week 4: NFL Week 4 picks · anytime touchdown scorer picks · NFL defense rankings · defense vs position · live NFL board
Track record, with sample sizes: PropsBot performance ledger.
Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
Get every AI pick, Confidence Score, and prop edge on PropsBot.
See Today’s AI Picks