Rhyne Howard just dropped 26 in a 124-88 demolition of the Sparks. Atlanta already beat Phoenix twice. Kelsey Plum is on a calf tag after missing the last two games. That is the Dream vs Mercury prediction at 10:00 PM ET — a playoff-seeding road team against a Western club that is 7½ games out of the last spot. If you need a WNBA player props today starting point, start with Howard’s shot and Angel Reese’s boards, not a Mercury home-court number that is 5-11.
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ESPN’s Saturday card: Atlanta 23-13 (11-7 away), Phoenix 13-23 (5-11 home), Dream -5.5. Associated Press copy on that same card. Third meeting. Dream won 82-80 on May 24 and 96-82 on Aug. 5, Howard 23, Plum 19 in that one. Plum is not in this one until the calf clears. ESPN lists her day-to-day. CBS reported she is out indefinitely after missing Phoenix’s last two. Either way, do not price a Plum minutes market. Brionna Jones is out (leg) for Atlanta.
Who to target in Dream vs Mercury player props today
Howard. Twenty-six on 9-of-15, 5-of-8 from three, Thursday in Los Angeles. ESPN has her at 3.5 made threes over the last 10. She already went for 23 in the last Phoenix meeting. The Mercury defense that just watched Los Angeles give up 124 is not the reason to fade her. The back-to-backs and the travel are. Atlanta has played four of its last six on the road and is 3-1 in those. Reese said the road wins are the ones that will matter for seeding. Believe her, then check the minutes.
Reese is 15.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, 1.7 steals. League-leading boards. Against the Sparks she posted 20, 10, 8 assists, and 3 steals. Phoenix ranks sixth in the West in rebounding at 31.6; Alyssa Thomas leads them at 7.5. That is a size gap, not a narrative. Thomas is still the Mercury engine: 14.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 8.2 assists. Kahleah Copper is 20.4 points over the last 10 and 20.5 on the season per CBS. If you are betting Phoenix, you are betting Copper’s scoring and Thomas’s all-in line, not a Plum stack.
The playoff math is Phoenix’s problem, not Atlanta’s
CBS: Mercury 7½ behind Dallas for the eighth spot with eight games left. A loss can eliminate them. They have lost four of five. Atlanta has won four of five and is jockeying for a top-four home court in the first round. Last 10: Dream 7-3, 96.0 points; Mercury 5-5, 85.5. TeamRankings posted Atlanta -5.5 and 176.5 as a Saturday snapshot. ESPN showed the same -5.5. Book number, not a PropsBot percentage. The 124-88 from Thursday will tempt the over. Phoenix has not been that game. Atlanta just was. Confirm the live total before you treat 176.5 as a lock.
| Confirmed mark | Atlanta | Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-13 | 13-23 |
| Home/road | 11-7 away | 5-11 home |
| Points per game | 91.2 | 83.9 |
| Last 10 | 7-3, 96.0 PPG | 5-5, 85.5 PPG |
| Top scorer tape | Howard 26 vs LAL | Copper 20.5 PPG (CBS) |
| Top rebounder | Reese 11.9 | Thomas 7.5 |
| Injuries | Jones out (leg) | Plum day-to-day (calf), missed last two |
| H2H 2026 | Dream 82-80 (May 24), 96-82 (Aug. 5) | |
Sources: ESPN/AP preview for Aug. 22; CBS gametracker notes on Plum’s last two misses, Howard’s 9-of-15, Reese’s 20-10-8; TeamRankings public snapshot on the spread/total.
How to bet WNBA predictions today in Phoenix
Atlanta’s side is the one that matches the last two meetings and the last 10. It is still a road favorite after a blowout, which is where books get people to fade. Howard points and Reese rebounds are the props with tape. Thomas’s assists/points stay live even without Plum because that is how Phoenix functions. Copper’s scoring number is the Mercury ticket if you think they keep this in the 80s instead of another 124. Live WNBA player props today: app.propsbot.ai.
Dream vs Mercury FAQ — August 22, 2026
Is Kelsey Plum playing against the Dream?
Do not bet it as a yes. ESPN/AP lists her day-to-day (calf). She has missed Phoenix’s last two games. CBS reported the calf as out indefinitely. There is no Plum minutes market until she is announced in the lineup.
What happened the last time Atlanta played Phoenix?
Dream 96-82 on August 5. Howard 23, Plum 19. Atlanta also won the first meeting 82-80 on May 24. Third try Saturday, first one in Phoenix this season.
Who is the better prop, Howard or Reese?
Different tickets. Howard just went 26 on 9-of-15 with five threes and already scored 23 against this team. Reese is the league’s leading rebounder at 11.9 and just posted a 20-10-8 line in Los Angeles. Points vs. boards. Both have Saturday tape. Neither needs a made-up model %.
Can the Mercury still make the playoffs?
CBS had them 7½ games behind Dallas for eighth with eight games left, and noted a loss can eliminate them. That is the urgency. It is not a reason to fade a Dream team that has already beaten them twice and just scored 124.
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