Quick answer: The best anytime touchdown scorer QB picks are dual-threat rushing TD specialists. Top picks: Jalen Hurts (Tush Push goldmine), Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels. Lines typically range -105 to +200 depending on game script.
What Drives QB Anytime TD Probability
Three factors. First: designed rushing role. QBs who run designed plays in red zone (Hurts via Tush Push, Lamar via QB power) have structurally higher rushing TD probability. Second: red-zone usage. Some teams use QB rushing in goal-line situations heavily. Third: game script — close games keep QB in the offense longer.
Top QB Anytime TD Picks (Rushing)
Jalen Hurts (Eagles): The Tush Push play creates near-automatic short-yardage TD opportunities. His career rate of 1.0+ rushing TDs per game is structurally inflated by scheme. ATS rushing TD line typically -130 to +130.
Josh Allen (Bills): Designed rushing in red zone produces consistent rushing TDs. ATS rushing TD line typically +100 to +180.
Lamar Jackson (Ravens): The most rushing-dominant QB in NFL history. ATS rushing TD line typically +115 to +200.
Jayden Daniels (Commanders): Designed-run share + red-zone usage produces meaningful rushing TD probability. ATS rushing TD line typically +135 to +220.
Where the Sharp Edge Lives
Hurts rushing TD over is the most consistently +EV market in NFL props. The Tush Push effect creates a structural mispricing weekly. Books are slowly catching up; sharp bettors capture the gap.
Passing TDs ATS Bets
For total TDs (passing + rushing), Hurts and Allen have the highest combined-TD probability. Their ATS markets often misprice the dual-threat profile.
FAQ
Why is Hurts the best QB ATS pick?
The Eagles’ Tush Push play converts short-yardage situations into Hurts rushing TDs at the highest rate in NFL history. Public still underprices it.
Should I parlay QB ATS with team ML?
Avoid SGPs. Heavy correlation premium eats value.
Updated 2026-05-04. Browse all player prop pages.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks: Other Positions
Different position groups have different ATD signals. RBs win on goal-line carries, WRs on red-zone target share, TEs on coverage mismatches, QBs on rushing volume. See PropsBot’s AI ATD picks for each:
- Best ATD Scorer: Running Backs — goal-line workhorses
- Best ATD Scorer: Wide Receivers — red-zone alphas
- Best ATD Scorer: Tight Ends — red-zone specialists
- Best ATD Scorer: Quarterbacks — rushing TD specialists
