Week 2 — Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, September 20, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET. Lines are Week 2 openers captured Monday afternoon, September 14, and will move. Check the NFL board for the live number.
Both of these teams lost in Week 1, and they lost differently. Cleveland was blown out 34–10 in Jacksonville despite a respectable line from Deshaun Watson (16 of 22, 205 yards, one touchdown, one interception, plus 38 rushing yards on six carries); Quinshon Judkins managed 33 yards on 12 carries and Denzel Boston’s two catches went for 59 yards and the Browns’ only touchdown. Tampa Bay fell 33–27 in Cincinnati in a game where Baker Mayfield did not throw a touchdown (23 of 28, 216) but ran one in, and Bucky Irving touched the ball 15 times for 93 yards and a score.
What Week 1 told us
Cleveland’s offense produced one touchdown drive. Watson’s passing over on 178.5 held — the box score was fine — but the run game was not: Judkins’s 33 yards on 12 carries cleared nothing, and the model’s under on his 56.5 rushing yards was a comfortable winner. KC Concepcion (4 of 5, 43) was the most-targeted Brown after Boston.
Tampa Bay was efficient and short. Mayfield’s 28 attempts averaged under eight yards and Emeka Egbuka (5 of 6, 63) led the receivers; Chris Godwin caught all four targets for 40. Irving’s day was more receiving (seven catches, 48 yards) than rushing (eight carries, 45), which is why his combined-yardage over held while his rushing under also held.
Players to target
A line only carries a model lean when one side’s confidence reached 60 at capture, and nothing in this game cleared that bar on Monday. What follows is the opener and the Week 1 evidence — no side is attributed to the model.
- Bucky Irving — rushing yards, opened 59.5. Eight carries for 45 in Week 1, with the real production in the receiving column (seven catches, 48 yards). The rushing under on 62.5 held and the opener has come down three. His receiving line had not posted at capture. No model score on this single-book opener.
- Quinshon Judkins — rushing yards, opened 52.5. Twelve carries for 33 in Jacksonville; the under on 56.5 held by 23 yards and the opener has come down only four. No model score on this single-book opener.
- Baker Mayfield — rushing yards, opened 17.5. Five carries for 30 and a rushing touchdown against the Bengals. The number is priced 12.5 under what he just did. No model score on this single-book opener.
- Denzel Boston — anytime touchdown, opened +420 at Fanatics. Cleveland’s only touchdown in Week 1 was his, on a 46-yard catch; two catches for 59 was the day. The model had no lean on this row at capture.
The line to respect
Deshaun Watson — passing yards, opened 183.5. He threw for 205 on 22 attempts and the over on 178.5 held; the opener has moved up five. Baker Mayfield — passing yards, opened 228.5 is priced 12.5 above his 216 on 28 attempts. Neither carried a model score at capture.
The touchdown market is where readers will look first — Judkins at +145, Irving at -110, Mayfield and Boston at +420 — and none of those prices carried a model lean on Monday. Judkins did not score and had 33 yards; Irving had 23 touches and a score. We would wait for the confidence to move before treating any of them as a play.
Where the model held in Week 1
Pre-kickoff leans that did not flip and won:
- Deshaun Watson over 178.5 passing yards (205) and over 0.5 passing touchdowns (1).
- Quinshon Judkins under 56.5 rushing yards (33).
- Bucky Irving over 80.5 rushing plus receiving yards (93) and under 62.5 rushing yards (45).
- Emeka Egbuka over 4.5 receptions (5).
- Baker Mayfield over 21.5 completions (23).
Prediction stance
No line in this game carried a model lean on the Monday openers. The Week 1 evidence favours Irving’s usage over Judkins’s, and Mayfield’s legs over the number the market gave him, but that is the box score talking, not the model. No spread or total was in the Monday capture; the board will have the side once it posts, and the confidence on these rows once the books fill in.
FAQ
What time is Browns vs Buccaneers in Week 2?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. ET — Cleveland at Tampa Bay.
What is the best Browns vs Buccaneers prop?
Nothing in this game carried a model lean on the Monday openers. The Week 1 evidence sits with Bucky Irving (23 touches, 93 scrimmage yards, a touchdown), but his 59.5 rushing line and -110 touchdown price had no model lean at capture.
Is Bucky Irving’s rushing line a play?
Not on the opener — 59.5 carried no model score. His Week 1 production was seven catches for 48 yards and eight carries for 45; his receiving line is the better market once it posts.
Live board
Every number above is a Monday opener. The live NFL board carries the current price across the books it tracks and the model’s confidence on both sides. Not a member? Start a monthly plan.
Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
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