One of the MLB picks today, Wednesday, May 13, 2026, is Bryce Miller Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (SEA @ HOU, 8:11 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 54.1% Confidence with a 2.1% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits roughly 2 points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: -170.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 8:11 PM ET first pitch.
| Window | Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 80% / 80% / 75% | Best Available | 3.5 Hits Allowed | -170 |
| Season | n/a | Best Available | 3.5 Hits Allowed | -170 |
| H2H vs HOU | n/a | Best Available | 3.5 Hits Allowed | -170 |
Is Bryce Miller a good Over 3.5 Hits Allowed bet on May 13, 2026?

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Why Bryce Miller Over 3.5 Hits Allowed?
PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 54.1% Confidence Score to Bryce Miller giving up Over 3.5 hits in Houston tonight. That’s Moderate Confidence on a pitcher prop with a thin career sample but heavy recent signal. The Edge Score at 2.1% says the model thinks the Over is priced about right but slightly cheap at -170.
Historical Performance at 3.5 Hits Allowed
Miller has surrendered 4+ hits in 80% of his last 5 starts and 80% of his last 10. L20 sits at 75%. The pattern is locked in. H2H and season splits versus Houston are unavailable on the public sample — that’s the only caveat. The contact profile he’s allowed lately doesn’t suggest a one-off.
Matchup Context: SEA @ HOU
Astros at home, a top-half offense by contact metrics. Houston team xBA .255 with 74.4% contact rate — they put bat to ball, and Miller’s xBA against has run .274 with a Hard% Allowed of 48.6%. That’s a problem against any decent lineup, doubly so in Minute Maid. LD% allowed 34.3% and GB% 37.9% says the contact has been line-drive heavy — the worst kind of contact for a pitcher.
Best Line Available
-170 on the Over is the top number we found at posting. Implied 63%. Model says 65%. Thin edge but the recent-form alignment with the matchup profile is the case here, not the price. Shop alt lines — Over 4.5 may have shoppable +money if you want to lever the conviction.
Recent Track Record on PropsBot’s MLB Pitcher Props
Across the last 30 days of PropsBot’s MLB pitcher-side picks at Moderate Confidence (Confidence Score 50–64%), the public ledger shows a 54% hit rate over 31 graded picks. Full pick-by-pick history is published at Performance Methodology — every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome.
How PropsBot Models MLB Hits Allowed Props
Multiple AI models score the prop using pitcher-batter matchup data, ballpark factors, weather conditions, platoon splits, and real-time lineup confirmations. Consensus output gets summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.
More MLB Player Props — May 13, 2026
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
Compare to other AI prop tools
Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Bryce Miller on MLB.com
- Advanced metrics: Statcast xBA Against and Hard%
- Game info: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros on May 13, 2026
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 13, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 13, 2026
- Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Hits (MLB)
- Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits (MLB)
- Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 Hits (MLB)
- Brent Burns Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (NHL)
- Dean Wade Under 3.5 Points (NBA)
See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/