Another high-edge MLB pick today, Sunday, May 31, 2026, is Chadwick Tromp Under 0.5 Hits (ATL @ CIN, 1:41 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 79.8% Confidence with a 0.0% Edge Score, meaning the price is essentially a coin flip while the model’s read sits a full 28.6% above the market — today’s widest confidence gap. Best available price: Hard Rock Bet -105.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 1:41 PM ET first pitch.
| Window | Under Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 80% / 60% / 67% | Hard Rock Bet | 0.5 H | -105 |
| Season | 60% | Hard Rock Bet | 0.5 H | -105 |
| H2H vs CIN | 100% | Hard Rock Bet | 0.5 H | -105 |
Is Chadwick Tromp a good Under 0.5 Hits bet vs Nick Lodolo on May 31?
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Why Chadwick Tromp Under 0.5 Hits vs Nick Lodolo?
PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 79.8% Confidence Score to Chadwick Tromp under 0.5 Hits tonight. That threshold qualifies as High Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 0.0% Edge Score, with a +28.6% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.
Tromp is a bottom-of-the-order catcher with a .165 expected average who rarely squares the ball up — a 25% hard-hit rate backs that up. Against Lodolo, with a hitless head-to-head history, the model treats a no-hit night as far more likely than the near-even price implies.
Historical Performance at 0.5 Hits
Taken as the under, Tromp has gone hitless in 4 of his last 5 and in every head-to-head look at this matchup. His .165 expected average and 0.50 hits per game are the engine here — this is a catcher who simply doesn’t barrel the ball. The 71.7% contact rate is empty contact, not hard contact.
Matchup Context: ATL @ CIN
Atlanta visits Cincinnati with Tromp facing left-hander Nick Lodolo. The H2H row reads 100% under for a reason — Tromp has yet to collect a hit in this look. Game context passed 0 of 3 internal checks, so this is a bet on the bat profile, not the run environment.
Best Line Available
Hard Rock Bet’s -105 is about as cheap as an under gets — almost a pick’em price for a play the model rates near 80%. That’s the whole case: you’re paying close to even money for a side the model is far more confident in than the book. Grab -105 or better.
How PropsBot Grades MLB H Picks
Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.
How PropsBot Models MLB Hits Props
Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.
More MLB Player Props — May 31, 2026
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
Compare to other AI prop tools
Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Chadwick Tromp on MLB.com
- Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Chadwick Tromp
- Game info: ATL at CIN on May 31, 2026
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 31, 2026
- Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 Runs Scored (MLB)
- Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 Earned Runs (MLB)
- Ranger Suárez Over 16.5 Pitcher Outs (MLB)
- Matthew Liberatore Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs (MLB)
See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 31, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
