Also on the MLB slate today, an MLB pick today, Sunday, May 31, 2026, is Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 Earned Runs (ARI @ SEA, 4:11 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 69.6% Confidence with a 1.8% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits about two points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: Hard Rock Bet -110.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 4:11 PM ET first pitch.
| Window | Over Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 40% / 60% / 45% | Hard Rock Bet | 2.5 ER | -110 |
| Season | 50% | Hard Rock Bet | 2.5 ER | -110 |
| H2H vs SEA | 0% | Hard Rock Bet | 2.5 ER | -110 |
Is Merrill Kelly a good Over 2.5 Earned Runs bet vs the Mariners on May 31?
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Why Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 Earned Runs vs the Mariners?
PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 69.6% Confidence Score to Merrill Kelly over 2.5 Earned Runs tonight. That threshold qualifies as High Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 1.8% Edge Score, with a +17.2% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.
Kelly is the kind of arm who racks up strikeouts but lets traffic on, and the model reads the Seattle lineup at home as more likely to push three across than the near-even price suggests. It’s the contrarian side in a park that usually favors pitchers — a bet on the bats, not the ballpark.
Historical Performance at 2.5 Earned Runs
Kelly has cleared 2.5 earned runs in 6 of his last 10 starts. The last five are choppier — two overs, including an eight-run blowup on 4/21, against three clean outings. Season-long he sits right at a coin flip, 50% over the line. This isn’t a pitcher melting down every time out; it’s a number the model thinks is set a touch low.
Matchup Context: ARI @ SEA
Kelly takes the ball in Seattle, a park that usually helps arms, so an over leaning on three-plus runs is the contrarian side of the room. The model is betting the Mariners’ bats over the venue. Read the full screen below before first pitch and decide whether you trust the lineup or the ballpark.
Best Line Available
Three books price the over between -116 and -120, with Novig’s -116 the best of that group. Hard Rock Bet’s -110 is the cheapest way in overall. If you’re taking the over, shop it — the gap between -110 and -130 is real money across a season.
How PropsBot Grades MLB ER Picks
Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.
How PropsBot Models MLB Earned Runs Props
Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.
More MLB Player Props — May 31, 2026
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
Compare to other AI prop tools
Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Merrill Kelly on MLB.com
- Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Merrill Kelly
- Game info: ARI at SEA on May 31, 2026
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 31, 2026
- Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 Runs Scored (MLB)
- Chadwick Tromp Under 0.5 Hits (MLB)
- Ranger Suárez Over 16.5 Pitcher Outs (MLB)
- Matthew Liberatore Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs (MLB)
See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 31, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
