Drafted September 19, 2026 ~11:55 p.m. ET. Week 2 — Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Board asOf Sep 19, 11:52 p.m. ET.
Lead the card with the only Colts anytime TD that cleared the top cut: Jonathan Taylor Over 0.5 Anytime TD — Confidence Score 58, Confidence Gap -0.3, Edge +5.9%, Fliff -140.
Gap is basically flat. Edge is the reason it is on the page. You are not getting a soft price at -140 — you are getting the SNF ATD the board actually scored.
Injury notes before you build a ticket: Ashton Dulin OUT (ankle). Josh Simmons OUT (back). Chris Jones QUESTIONABLE (calf). That last one is the OL/DL swing for Indy’s rush script — if Jones sits, JT’s ATD narrative gets louder; if he plays, leave the Conf where the board printed it.
Live card: PropsBot NFL board.
Board card — Colts at Chiefs (SNF)
Game markets (game-boards)
- ML: IND +255 (Matchbook) · market Conf 28.6 · KC -255 (BetOpenly) · market Conf 71.4
- Spread: KC -6 @ -101 (Matchbook) · Edge +0.2pp · IND +6 @ -102 (Matchbook) · Edge -0.9pp
- Total 46.5: Over @ +105 (Bovada) · Edge +0.6pp · Under @ +100 (BetOpenly) · Edge +0.6pp
Team ML Confidence on this pull is market-anchored — price context, not a model lean. Prefer player Conf below.
Player props (board-page Conf ≥ 55)
- Jonathan Taylor Over 0.5 Anytime TD — Confidence Score 58 · Gap -0.3 · Edge +5.9% · Fliff -140
- Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals — Confidence Score 56 · Gap -0.7 · Edge +4.7% · DraftKings -131
- Harrison Butker Over 7.5 Kicker Pts — Confidence Score 55 · Gap -0.4 · Edge +2.6% · betPARX -124
Anything else (Mahomes pass yards, Rice yards, Colts WR ladders after Dulin) is DOWN for a Conf lead on this top cut until you re-pull.
Prediction stance
Play JT anytime TD Over 0.5 at Confidence Score 58 if you are betting this game’s props. Edge +5.9% is the cleanest player Edge on the SNF card in the ≥55 band. Gap -0.3 means the model and the market are almost even — size it like a lean, not a hammer.
Butker Field Goals Over 1.5 (56 / -0.7 Gap / +4.7% Edge) is the home-script stack if you already like Kansas City covering or winning in a grind. Do not mash JT + Butker FG into one ticket without checking correlation on the live board — same scoring drives can feed both or kill both.
KC -6 at -101 with only +0.2pp Edge is a tax, not a side play off this pull. Total 46.5 is two-way juice-light; neither Over nor Under prints a player-prop-style stance here.
Injury sheet that actually matters for props
- Ashton Dulin OUT — Indy WR depth thins; other Colts WR reception / ATD markets can move, but no Conf ≥ 55 printed for a replacement WR on this pull → DOWN.
- Josh Simmons OUT — Chiefs OL backup into the Mahomes pressure picture (pass yards / INT / sack-adjacent). No Mahomes Conf ≥ 55 on the top cut → markets named only.
- Chris Jones QUESTIONABLE — Interior DL for KC. If OUT, Indy rush / JT ATD / Daniel Jones pass get a bump in narrative; JT’s printed Conf stays 58 until the board moves.
FAQ
What time is Colts vs Chiefs on September 20, 2026?
Sunday Night Football — 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Indianapolis at Kansas City, NFL Week 2.
What is Jonathan Taylor’s anytime TD Confidence Score for SNF?
Confidence Score 58, Gap -0.3, Edge +5.9% at Fliff -140 on the Sep 19 11:52 p.m. ET board pull.
Is Chris Jones playing against the Colts?
He is QUESTIONABLE (calf) on the CBS final Week 2 report as of Sep 19. Confirm with Sunday inactives before you lean harder into Indy rush props.
Where is the rest of the Sunday injury map?
On the Week 2 injury-impact hub (Darnold / Murray / Penix OUT carousel) and the NFL picks today hub.
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