Week 2 — Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, September 20, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET. Lines are Monday, September 14 openers and will move. Confirm on the NFL board.
Neither of these offenses cracked 180 passing yards in Week 1, and both lost by a score. Washington fell 24–22 in Philadelphia with Jayden Daniels completing 18 of 34 for 164 yards and two touchdowns (plus 31 rushing yards), Jacory Croskey-Merritt running 16 times for 63 and a score, and Antonio Williams (4 of 4, 64, touchdown) and Stefon Diggs (4 of 9, 55, touchdown) catching the scores. Dallas lost 28–20 at the Giants: Dak Prescott threw for 175 (22 of 34, two touchdowns, one interception), Javonte Williams scored on the ground and through the air (12 carries for 41; 5 of 5 for 31), and CeeDee Lamb caught 5 of 8 for 44 and a touchdown.
What Week 1 told us
Washington leaned on its back. Croskey-Merritt’s attempts over on 10.5 cleared by six, and his 63 yards beat a 40.5 rushing line the model had leaned under — a miss we note. Daniels’s passing-touchdowns over on 0.5 held (two), his rushing under on 35.5 held (31), and Rachaad White’s combined-yardage under on 41.5 held at 27.
Dallas could not find yards through the air. Prescott’s passing under on 263.5 held by 88 yards; George Pickens’s receiving under on 67.5 held with 28; Lamb’s under on 75.5 held with 44. Javonte Williams’s rushing under on 72.5 held at 41 — he scored twice, but on 17 touches for 72 scrimmage yards.
Players to target
A line only carries a model lean when one side’s confidence reached 60 at capture, and nothing in this game cleared that bar on Monday. What follows is the opener and the Week 1 evidence — no side is attributed to the model.
- Javonte Williams — anytime touchdown, opened -145 at DraftKings. The model is close to a coin flip here (52 on the yes side). Two touchdowns on 17 touches in Week 1 — one rushing, one receiving — and the goal-line role is his.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt — rushing yards, opened 48.5. Sixteen carries for 63 against Philadelphia, and Dallas just allowed 81 rushing yards to Cam Skattebo on 18 carries. No model score on this single-book opener.
- Javonte Williams — rushing yards, opened 69.5. Noted for contrast with the touchdown price: 41 yards on 12 carries last week, and the under on 72.5 held. The opener has come down three. No model score on this single-book opener.
- Jayden Daniels — rushing yards, opened 34.5. Thirty-one on the ground in Philadelphia, and the under on 35.5 held; the opener has come down one. No model score on this single-book opener.
The line to respect
Dak Prescott — passing yards, opened 262.5. The highest quarterback line on the early Sunday board for a passer who just threw for 175, and the under on 263.5 held last week by a wide margin; the opener has come down one yard. No model score on this single-book opener — we would want a reason before backing either side, and neither the box score nor the model has offered one for the over.
The receiver touchdown prices — George Pickens (+145), Stefon Diggs (+185), Terry McLaurin (+200) — carried no model lean at capture. Pickens had three catches for 28 without a score; Diggs did score, on four catches for 55.
Where the model held in Week 1
Pre-kickoff leans that did not flip and won:
- Dak Prescott under 263.5 passing yards (175) and over 1.5 passing touchdowns (2).
- George Pickens under 67.5 receiving yards (28).
- CeeDee Lamb under 75.5 receiving yards (44).
- Javonte Williams under 72.5 rushing yards (41).
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 10.5 rushing attempts (16).
- Jayden Daniels over 0.5 passing touchdowns (2) and under 35.5 rushing yards (31).
Prediction stance
No line in this game carried a model lean on the Monday openers. The Week 1 evidence sits on the ground — Williams’s two scores, Croskey-Merritt’s 63 against a defense that just gave up 81 to Skattebo — and the closest the model comes to a side is a coin flip on Williams to score. Both quarterback passing lines (Prescott 262.5, Daniels 215.5) carried no model score. No spread or total was in the Monday capture.
FAQ
What time is Commanders vs Cowboys in Week 2?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 4:25 p.m. ET — Washington at Dallas.
What are the best Commanders vs Cowboys props?
Nothing in this game carried a model lean on the Monday openers. Javonte Williams anytime touchdown at -145 is close to a coin flip for the model (52 on the yes side) after two touchdowns; Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s 48.5 rushing yards follows a 63-yard day but carried no model score.
Is Dak Prescott’s passing line a play?
Not on the opener. His 262.5 carried no model score at capture; he threw for 175 in Week 1 and the under on 263.5 held.
Live board
Every number above is a Monday opener. The live NFL board carries the current price across the books it tracks and the model’s confidence on both sides. Not a member? Start a monthly plan.
Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
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