Connor Bedard higher 0.5 points is the NHL play when Montreal visits Chicago tonight. theScore Bet has it at -190, the best price on the board. That price implies 65.5%, and PropsBot gives the over a Confidence Score of 68.2, so you’re getting a Confidence Gap of +2.5 points and an Edge Score of +5.1%. The line has sat at 0.5 since it opened.
This is a price play as much as a player play. Bedard carries the second-highest Confidence Score among tonight’s NHL points overs, and the gap only exists at the right number. Most books hang him between -200 and -240. At DraftKings’ -225 the implied probability is 69.2%, which is already above the model. Shop it.
Why one point is the right ask
He has a point in three straight games, 3 of his last 5, 7 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 20. That’s a 60% to 70% player at this line, and the model lands right in that band at 68.2.
The usage is there. He’s averaging 20.9 minutes, 3.35 of them on the power play, and 3.3 shots a game. A center who touches the puck that much doesn’t need a big night to get one point.
The matchup is the other half. Montreal is allowing 3.78 goals a game, its projected starter is at an .847 save percentage, and the Canadiens’ penalty kill is at 78.4%. The total is 6.5, which is a high-event number for the NHL.
What can go wrong
Montreal only gives up 26.4 shots a game, so Chicago may not get a flood of chances. Bedard’s expected-points rate (1.09 per 60) and his shot volume don’t clear their thresholds on the board either. This is a lean at a fair-plus price, not a lock. Size it like a 68, and don’t chase it past -200.
What to skip on his card
- Shots on goal higher 2.5 (-140 BetMGM): Confidence Score 57.9, Gap -0.3. Priced about right. Pass.
- Anytime goal (+170 FanDuel): Confidence Score 35.4, Gap -2.0, and he’s scored in 1 of his last 10. Pass.
- Power-play points higher 0.5 (+200 Bally Bet): Gap -7.3. Pass.
- 2+ points (+245 Kalshi): 3 of his last 10, Confidence Score 27.6 against 29.0% implied. Not enough to climb.
If you want a plus-money angle, assists higher 0.5 at +115 on Hard Rock Bet carries a Confidence Score of 48.6 and a +2.5 gap. It’s a smaller-confidence version of the same thesis, not a replacement for it.
Quick answers
What time is Canadiens vs. Blackhawks? 8:00 PM ET, Friday, October 23, 2026, in Chicago.
Best price on Connor Bedard points? Higher 0.5 at -190 on theScore Bet. BetMGM, Bally Bet and BetRivers are at -200.
How often has he recorded a point lately? 3 of the last 5, 7 of the last 10.
Prices in this piece are from the 2:44 PM ET board. Lines move before puck drop, so check the number on the live PropsBot board before you bet it. The rest of tonight’s slate is on our NHL picks today page, and every graded pick lands on the public ledger at dashboard.propsbot.ai.
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