Is Jacob deGrom Over 4.5 Hits Allowed a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Jacob deGrom hits allowed prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Jacob deGrom's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best hits allowed for Jacob deGrom's Over prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Jacob DeGrom Over 4.5 Hits Allowed — MLB Picks Today, June 24

By David

Published June 24, 2026

The top MLB pick today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026, is Jacob deGrom Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (TEX @ MIA, 12:11 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 60.9% Confidence with a 4.6% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits roughly five points above the implied number baked into the price. Best available price: ProphetX -110.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 12:11 PM ET first pitch.

Window	Over Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	40% / 50% / 45%	ProphetX	4.5 Hits Allowed	-110
Season	46%	ProphetX	4.5 Hits Allowed	-110
H2H vs MIA	0%	ProphetX	4.5 Hits Allowed	-110

Is Jacob deGrom a good Over 4.5 Hits Allowed bet vs the Marlins on June 24?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Wednesday, June 24, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

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Why Jacob deGrom Over 4.5 Hits Allowed vs the Marlins?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 60.9% Confidence Score to Jacob deGrom over 4.5 Hits Allowed tonight. That threshold qualifies as Moderate Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 4.6% Edge Score, with a +6.6% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

Jacob deGrom misses bats, but missing bats is not the same as missing barrels, and 4.5 Hits Allowed is a contact number, not a strikeout number. He has surrendered five or more hits in four of his last six, and the line sits right at that recent baseline. Miami puts the ball in play — a get-on-base lineup, not a swing-and-miss one — which is exactly the script that pushes a pitcher past 4.5 knocks.

Historical Performance at 4.5 Hits Allowed

The Over on 4.5 Hits Allowed has been live all spring: 7 hits against the Yankees on May 5, 5 against Houston on May 16, 6 against the Angels, then 6 each in his last two starts against Boston and San Diego. That is the high end. The dips — 3 against the Cubs, 3 against Cleveland — came against weaker contact lineups than Miami runs out.

Matchup Context: TEX @ MIA

Miami does not scare anyone on power, but they make contact and work counts, and deGrom has been touched up for hits even in starts where the strikeouts pile up. Five singles do the same damage to this number as two homers. The 4.6% Edge Score says the price has not caught up to how often he is clearing 4.5.

Best Line Available

ProphetX has the Over 4.5 Hits Allowed at -110, the cleanest price on the board — Novig is -111, DraftKings -119, BetOnline -116. Take the -110 at ProphetX before first pitch; it is a free sliver of value over the chalk number.

How PropsBot Grades MLB Hits Allowed Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Hits Allowed Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — June 24, 2026

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Jacob deGrom on MLB.com
Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Jacob deGrom
Game info: TEX at MIA on June 24, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — June 24, 2026

See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of June 24, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

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Tagged AI Picks, Jacob deGrom, MLB, MLB Picks Today, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Player Props

Jacob deGrom Over 4.5 Hits Allowed — MLB Picks Today, June 24