Drafted September 19, 2026 ~11:55 p.m. ET. Week 2 — Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos, Sunday September 20, 2026, 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS. Board asOf Sep 19, 11:52 p.m. ET.
This window was empty in the Sep 20 prediction inventory. Filling it with what the board actually printed — not a fake WR stack.
Wil Lutz Over 1.5 Field Goals is the only JAC@DEN player prop that cleared Confidence Score 55 on the merged top extract: Conf 57, Gap -4.5, Edge +4.3%, Fanatics -160.
Ugly Gap. Real Edge. Kicker props with negative Gaps are taxes you size small.
Marvin Mims Jr. is OUT (foot) per CBS / NBC Week 2 reports. That is the injury hook for Denver WR receptions / ATDs and Bo Nix pass volume — but those WR rows did not print Conf ≥ 55 on this pull, so they stay DOWN / UNVERIFIED for a numbered lead. Name the markets. Do not invent juice.
Prices: PropsBot NFL board.
Board card — Jaguars at Broncos
Game markets (game-boards only)
- ML: JAC +142 (BetOpenly) · market Conf 42 · DEN -141 (Matchbook) · market Conf 58
- Spread: DEN -2.5 @ -112 (Matchbook) · Edge -0.9pp · JAC +2.5 @ +109 (ProphetX) · Edge +0.2pp
- Total 45.5: Over @ +100 (BetOpenly) · Edge -0.2pp · Under @ +103 (ProphetX) · Edge +1.0pp
Market-anchored ML Conf again — DEN 58 / JAC 42 is the implied moneyline split, not a PropsBot model hammer. Spread Edge actually prefers the Jaguar number (+0.2pp on +2.5) over the Bronco number (-0.9pp on -2.5). Under 45.5 carries the better total Edge on this pull (+1.0pp).
Player props from SLATE (Conf ≥ 55 cut)
- Wil Lutz Over 1.5 Field Goals — Confidence Score 57 · Gap -4.5 · Edge +4.3% · Fanatics -160
Everything else for this game on the broader board (Lawrence INTs, Dobbins rush att, Sutton/Engram yards, Nix pass) sits below the Conf-55 cut used for Sunday leads → DOWN until a re-pull puts them in the top band with printed Gap/Edge.
Mims OUT — what moves, what does not
Mims OUT (foot). Next-up volume: Courtland Sutton and the rest of Denver’s WR room; Nix’s pass distribution shifts toward the remaining targets.
Markets that can reprice: DEN WR receptions / anytime TDs, Bo Nix pass yards / completions / TDs.
What we will not do: paste a Confidence Score for Sutton, Engram, or Nix that the SLATE top cut did not print. Those are DOWN. Re-check the board after inactives if you want a numbered WR lean.
RJ Harvey is QUESTIONABLE (hamstring). If he sits, Denver rush markets (Dobbins / other RBs) can move — again, no Conf ≥ 55 rush ATD printed for DEN on this SLATE cut → DOWN for a lead.
Jaguars side of the injury report is clean on the CBS final.
Prediction stance
Lean Lutz Field Goals Over 1.5 at Confidence Score 57 if you need a numbered prop for this game. Gap -4.5 is the warning label — Edge +4.3% is why it still appears. Treat it as a small piece, not the Sunday centerpiece.
On the sides: JAC +2.5 at +109 with +0.2pp Edge is the less-taxed spread number vs DEN -2.5 at -112 with -0.9pp. Under 45.5 at +103 (+1.0pp Edge) beats Over on this pull’s Edge column. None of those are player Conf leans — they are market Edges from game-boards.
If you came here for a Mims-OUT WR hammer, wait for a board row that prints Conf. The injury is real; the number is not on this page yet.
FAQ
What time is Jaguars vs Broncos Week 2?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS — Jacksonville at Denver.
Why is Wil Lutz the only player prop with a Confidence Score here?
He is the only JAC@DEN row in the Sep 19 11:52 p.m. ET top extract at Confidence Score ≥ 55 (57 / Gap -4.5 / Edge +4.3% at Fanatics -160). Other props for this game are DOWN on that cut.
How does Marvin Mims being OUT change the card?
It opens Denver WR reception / ATD and Nix pass markets for a reprice. It does not invent Conf / Gap / Edge for Sutton or anyone else — those stay DOWN until the live board prints them.
Is Denver a home favorite I should just bet?
DEN -141 ML (market Conf 58) and DEN -2.5 at -112 with -0.9pp Edge is a tax on the spread. If you want the cheaper number on this pull, look at JAC +2.5 (+109, +0.2pp Edge) or Under 45.5 — then confirm live.
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