Jaren Jackson Jr. higher 17.5 points is the play when New Orleans visits Utah tonight. DraftKings has it at -115. That price implies 53.5%, and PropsBot gives the over a Confidence Score of 54.4, so you’re getting a Confidence Gap of +2.1 points and an Edge Score of +3.9%. The line hasn’t budged off 17.5 since it opened.
It’s not a huge number, and it’s thinner than it was this morning, when the Confidence Score sat at 56.6. It doesn’t need to be huge. The model still has the over above the price, the price itself hasn’t moved, and the projection still clears the line. Size it as a lean, not a hammer.
Why 17.5 is the right number to take
The model projects 18.9 points for him. Not 25. Call it 19. So the case is roughly a point and a half of cushion at a fair price, not a ceiling game.
Recent form backs that up without overselling it. He has cleared this line in four straight games and in 4 of his last 5. Stretch it out and it’s 6 of 10, and 12 of 20. Against the Pelicans specifically, he’s at 75% in the head-to-head sample.
The matchup helps the volume side. His usage rate is 25.8%. New Orleans plays at a 105.3 pace and is allowing 52.2% shooting, and the total is up at 239.5 with Utah a short favorite. A close, fast game is where a big who takes shots gets to 18.
The one thing that can sink it
Minutes. The board has him at 28, and that’s one of the inputs that doesn’t pass its threshold (true shooting and free-throw rate don’t either). Foul trouble or a short rotation night and 17.5 gets tight fast. It’s why this is a lean you size like a 54.4, not a 65.
Where the alt ladder stops making sense
If you want a bigger payout, the ladder shows exactly where the floor gives way. He’s 10 for 10 at 15+, 9 of 10 at 16+, 8 of 10 at 17+. Then it flattens: 6 of 10 at every rung from 18+ through 22+ (+144 on Kalshi at 20+, +205 at Bally Bet at 22+). At 23+ it falls to 4 of 10.
Those plus-money rungs look tempting on hit rate, but their Confidence Scores sit below what the prices imply (39.4 against 41.0% at 20+, 30.8 against 32.8% at 22+). From 15+ through 25+, the 18+ rung, which is the same bet as higher 17.5, is the only scored rung where the Confidence Score beats the price. Stay at 17.5. If your book offers the 18+ alt cheaper than the main line (the ladder shows -108 at Bally Bet right now), that’s the same outcome at a better number.
What to skip on his card
- Pts+Reb+Ast higher 26.5 (-114 FanDuel): Confidence Score 49.4, Gap -4.3. He’s hit it 7 of 10, but the model has it below the price.
- Threes higher 1.5 (-125 BetMGM): Gap -5.6. Pass.
- Rebounds higher 6.5 (+118 FanDuel): a Confidence Score of 50.6 against a 45.9% implied price looks fine on paper, but he’s 0 for his last 5 and 3 of 10 there. I’m not betting the model against that much recent evidence.
Quick answers
What time is Pelicans vs. Jazz? 9:30 PM ET, Friday, October 23, 2026.
Best price on Jaren Jackson Jr. points? 17.5 at -115 on DraftKings on the main board. FanDuel hangs 18.5 at +100, which is a worse number for a projection of 18.9.
How often has he gone over 17.5 lately? 4 of the last 5, 6 of the last 10.
Prices in this piece are from the 2:44 PM ET board. Lines move before tip, so check the number on the live PropsBot board before you bet it. More of tonight’s scoring lines are on our NBA points props page, and every graded pick lands on the public ledger at dashboard.propsbot.ai.
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