Is Jose Soriano Over 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Jose Soriano pitcher earned runs prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Jose Soriano's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best pitcher earned runs for Jose Soriano's Over prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Jose Soriano Over 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs — MLB Picks Today, August 12

By David

Published August 12, 2026

A trend-supported MLB pick today, Wednesday, August 12, 2026, is Jose Soriano Over 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs (BOS @ TOR, 7:07 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 57.1% Confidence with a 0.0% Edge Score, meaning the historical windows favor the Over, but the screen shows a 0.0% Edge Score and 57.1% confidence versus 63% implied by Fliff -170. Best available price: Fliff -170.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 7:07 PM ET first pitch.

Window	Over Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	60% / 70% / 65%	Fliff	1.5 Earned Runs	-170
Season	56%	Fliff	1.5 Earned Runs	-170
H2H vs TOR	100%	Fliff	1.5 Earned Runs	-170

Is Jose Soriano a good Over 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs bet vs Toronto on August 12?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

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Why Jose Soriano Over 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs vs Toronto?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 57.1% Confidence Score to Jose Soriano over 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs tonight. That threshold qualifies as Lean in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 0.0% Edge Score, with a -5.9% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

Soriano has gone Over 1.5 earned runs in 70% of his last ten and 65% of his last twenty, the strongest broad trend among the standard props on this screen set. His 4.39 xERA and 4.10 SIERA also sit above his 3.24 ERA, suggesting the run-prevention baseline is less comfortable than the ERA alone. Still, PropsBot shows no positive Edge Score, and 57.1% confidence trails the 63% implied by -170.

Historical Performance at 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs

The Over rates are 60% in the last five, 70% in the last ten, 65% in the last twenty, 100% head-to-head and 56% on the season. That is consistent support across every displayed window. The caveat is that the market price already reflects much of it, demanding a hit rate near 63% at -170.

Matchup Context: BOS @ TOR

Toronto’s displayed team context includes a .722 opponent OPS, 101 wRC+ and 9.67 runs per game on the matchup panel. Soriano’s underlying indicators include a 3.84 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA, 4.39 xERA, 7.7% barrels allowed and 38.3% hard contact allowed. The player profile passed none of ten checks and the matchup passed one of three, so the Over is driven more by outcome history than a universally bullish model panel.

Best Line Available

Fliff -170 is the displayed price and implies about 63%, above the model’s 57.1% confidence. With a 0.0% Edge Score and -5.9% Confidence Gap, this is a number to compare carefully rather than chase. A cheaper price meaningfully improves the case; a move deeper into minus odds weakens it.

How PropsBot Grades MLB Earned Runs Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Pitcher Earned Runs Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — August 12, 2026

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Jose Soriano on MLB.com
Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Jose Soriano
Game info: BOS at TOR on August 12, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — August 12, 2026

See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of August 12, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

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