Is Max Scherzer Over 2.5 Earned Runs a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Max Scherzer earned runs prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Max Scherzer's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best earned runs for Max Scherzer's Over prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Max Scherzer Over 2.5 Earned Runs — MLB Picks Today, June 10

By David

Published June 10, 2026

Another high-edge MLB pick today, Wednesday, June 10, 2026, is Max Scherzer Over 2.5 Earned Runs (PHI @ TOR, 7:08 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 44.0% Confidence with a 7.4% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits about seven points above the implied probability the market is pricing in. Best available price: DraftKings -109.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 7:08 PM ET first pitch.

Window	Over Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	40% / 50% / 55%	DraftKings	2.5 Earned Runs	-109
Season	40%	DraftKings	2.5 Earned Runs	-109
H2H vs TOR	0%	DraftKings	2.5 Earned Runs	-109

Is Max Scherzer a good Over 2.5 Earned Runs bet vs the Phillies on June 10?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Wednesday, June 10, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

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Why Max Scherzer Over 2.5 Earned Runs vs the Phillies?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 44.0% Confidence Score to Max Scherzer over 2.5 Earned Runs tonight. That threshold qualifies as Speculative in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 7.4% Edge Score, with a -8.2% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

Max Scherzer’s surface numbers are alarming — a 9.64 ERA, an 8.53 FIP, and a 9.89 mark over his last five starts. The peripherals back it up: a 6.03 SIERA and 6.82 xERA say the bad results aren’t a fluke, and he’s surrendering a 13.8% barrel rate with 38.5% hard contact. Over 2.5 Earned Runs is a bet that the regression isn’t done with him yet.

Historical Performance at 2.5 Earned Runs

The Over has cashed in 55% of his last 20 starts and half of his last 10. It’s cooled to 40% across the L5, which is the one yellow flag — a couple of clean outings drag a runs-allowed prop under in a hurry. The head-to-head line reads 0%, but that’s a sliver of a sample against this opponent and not worth leaning on.

Matchup Context: PHI @ TOR

Here’s the tension. The Phillies aren’t a scary offense — an 88 wRC+ and a .661 team OPS put them below league average, and that’s exactly why Max Scherzer’s MLB Confidence sits at 44% instead of higher. The case for the Over is all about the arm, not the bats across from it. If Toronto pulls him early on June 10, 2026, the third run gets tougher to reach.

Best Line Available

DraftKings posts the Over at -109, the best of the books PropsBot tracks. The 7.4% Edge Score is the headline number — the model thinks -109 undersells how often Scherzer coughs up a third run — even with the overall Confidence held at 44%. If you’re on it, -109 is the line to beat; anything plus-money is a gift.

How PropsBot Grades MLB Earned Runs Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Earned Runs Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — June 10, 2026

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Glossary — key terms in this pick

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Max Scherzer on MLB.com
Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Max Scherzer
Game info: PHI at TOR on June 10, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — June 10, 2026

Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 Runs Scored (MLB)

See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of June 10, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

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Tagged AI Picks, Earned Runs, Max Scherzer, MLB, MLB Picks Today, Player Props