PropsBot’s Alternate Lines board grades every over-only rung on the Hits + Runs + RBIs ladder and sorts the whole slate by edge. For July 20, 2026 it is tracking 238 hitters. Below are the standout ladders on today’s card, each led by its best-value line (the starred rung), with the projected hit rate, the historical sample, and the edge PropsBot’s model assigns. Every number here is straight off the board — nothing is a lock, and the deeper rungs carry more risk for more edge.
Esmerlyn Valdez — PIT @ NYY, 7:06 PM ET
Esmerlyn Valdez leads the H+R+RBI ladder read for Pirates-Yankees. The sharpest rung is 2+ H+R+RBI, projected at 86.7% with a +38.9 edge (historical 21/31). The board projects the same 86.7% at both 1+ and 2+ off an identical 21/31 sample, so the 2+ rung is strictly the better price for the same modelled outcome. That is the whole reason it is starred rather than the safer-looking 1+.
| Line | Projected | Historical | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 86.7% | 21/31 | +18.1 |
| 2+ ★ best value | 86.7% | 21/31 | +38.9 |
| 3+ | 60% | 16/31 | +27.0 |
| 4+ | 46.7% | 13/31 | +25.3 |
| 5+ | 20% | 6/31 | +6.7 |
| 6+ | 13.3% | 4/31 | +2.2 |
Jordan Walker — STL @ LAA, 10:11 PM ET
Jordan Walker leads the H+R+RBI ladder read for Cardinals-Angels. The sharpest rung is 2+ H+R+RBI, projected at 86.7% with a +33.4 edge (historical 60/97). The deepest historical sample on today’s board at 97 games. Note the gap between the projected rate and the raw history at this rung (86.7% projected against 60/97 banked): the model is reading current form well above his season-long baseline, so this leans more on projection than on track record.
| Line | Projected | Historical | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 93.3% | 76/97 | +20.3 |
| 2+ ★ best value | 86.7% | 60/97 | +33.4 |
| 3+ | 60% | 41/97 | +22.7 |
| 4+ | 40% | 28/97 | +14.6 |
| 5+ | 26.7% | 17/97 | +10.8 |
| 6+ | 13.3% | 11/97 | +0.8 |
Ceddanne Rafaela — BOS vs BAL, 7:11 PM ET
Ceddanne Rafaela leads the H+R+RBI ladder read for Red Sox-Orioles. The sharpest rung is 2+ H+R+RBI, projected at 80% with a +20.0 edge (historical 51/95). The sharpest fall-off of the three. Past the 2+ rung the edge turns negative in a hurry — 4+ sits at -19.3 — so this ladder is worth climbing exactly one step and no further.
| Line | Projected | Historical | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 86.7% | 72/95 | +5.9 |
| 2+ ★ best value | 80% | 51/95 | +20.0 |
| 3+ | 46.7% | 32/95 | +5.9 |
| 4+ | 6.7% | 14/95 | -19.3 |
| 5+ | 6.7% | 8/95 | -8.5 |
| 6+ | 0% | 4/95 | -10.0 |
See the full MLB Hits + Runs + RBIs board
These are three of 238 hitters on today’s over-only ladder. PropsBot scores every rung for every player and re-sorts by edge as lines move. The full board is free at app.propsbot.ai.
Responsible gambling. Alternate-line ladders are higher-variance by design — the longer rungs hit less often. For information and entertainment only; bet within your means, 21+ where required. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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