PropsBot’s home run board for July 29, 2026 ranks every hitter on the slate by modelled probability of going deep, then pairs it with the opposing starter, the park factor, the wind and the best available price. Below are the three names the board surfaced today.
One thing to be clear about before the numbers: home run props are longshots by construction. The strongest read on today’s board sits under 20%, which means the model expects it to miss four times out of five. That is not a flaw in the pick, it is the shape of the market — and it is why every price here is plus money. Size them accordingly.
Note also that the tier badge and the probability are separate signals. A hitter can carry an ELITE tag at 11.0% because the tag reflects the quality of the spot, not the likelihood of the outcome.
Michael Harris II — 15.0% to homer (+413 Novig)
Michael Harris II (ATL, LHB) faces Christian Scott on the road against the Mets at 7:10 PM ET, in a park playing at a 1.07 factor (HR-friendly) with an 11 mph crosswind. PropsBot puts him at 15.0% to go deep and tags the spot ELITE. Best available price is +413 at Novig. The board reads the matchup as leaky, a 4.0% lean toward the bat.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.4 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 1.09 | 11 |
Riley Greene — 13.0% to homer (+500 FanDuel)
Riley Greene (DET, LHB) faces Trevor Rogers at home against the Orioles at 1:10 PM ET, in a park playing at a 1.05 factor (HR-friendly) with a 13 mph crosswind. PropsBot puts him at 13.0% to go deep and tags the spot ELITE. Best available price is +500 at FanDuel. He carries a DUE flag at +141 since his last homer, though the board reads this matchup as stingy, only a 0.8% lean.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.5 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 0.83 | 11 |
Jorge Soler — 15.1% to homer (+413 Novig)
Jorge Soler (LAA, RHB) faces Hayden Wesneski at home against the Astros at 9:38 PM ET, in a park playing at a 1.05 factor (HR-friendly) with a 4 mph wind blowing out. PropsBot puts him at 15.1% to go deep and tags the spot ELITE. Best available price is +413 at Novig. The lean is neutral here; the case is the HR-friendly park and his raw power.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.4 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 14 | — | 10 |
These are longshots by design; for the graded single-player props on today’s slate, see the rest of PropsBot’s MLB and WNBA board.
See the full MLB home run board
PropsBot scores every hitter on the slate for home run probability and re-sorts as lines and weather move. The full board is free at app.propsbot.ai.
Responsible gambling. Home run props are high-variance by design — the long prices reflect genuinely low hit rates. For information and entertainment only; bet within your means, 21+ where required. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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