PropsBot’s home run board for July 21, 2026 ranks every hitter on the slate by modelled probability of going deep, then pairs it with the opposing starter, the park factor, the wind and the best available price. Below are the six names the board surfaced today.
One thing to be clear about before the numbers: home run props are longshots by construction. The strongest read on today’s board sits under 20%, which means the model expects it to miss four times out of five. That is not a flaw in the pick, it is the shape of the market — and it is why every price here is plus money. Size them accordingly.
Note also that the tier badge and the probability are separate signals. A hitter can carry an ELITE tag at 11.0% because the tag reflects the quality of the spot, not the likelihood of the outcome.
Dinger Tuesday: why the home run market is busier today
July 21 is a Tuesday, which during the MLB season means Dinger Tuesday on FanDuel. It is the single biggest promotional driver of home run betting in the week, and it is worth understanding before you read the board above, because it shapes both the volume and the pricing you will see.
The mechanics, per FanDuel’s own terms: existing customers opt in through the Dinger Tuesday banner and choose either a Bet Reset or a 50% Profit Boost token, to be used on a To Hit a Home Run wager on any MLB game that day. New customers are offered a separate deal: a $5 or larger first bet returns $150 in bonus bets if it wins.
Two constraints matter more than the headline. First, the profit boost is capped at a $10 wager — so it is a small-stake enhancement, not a reason to increase your size on a longshot. Second, you cannot combine it with bonus funds. Read those two lines together and the promotion is worth a modest amount of expected value on a bet you were already going to make, and nothing at all on a bet you were not.
For today’s board specifically, the relevant names are the two priced at FanDuel: Junior Caminero at +280 and Austin Riley at +500. Caminero also happens to carry the strongest batted-ball profile of the six, which makes him the natural candidate if you are applying a boost. Riley is the higher price but the lower probability at 11.0%, with 8 mph of wind blowing in — a longer shot in the literal sense.
PropsBot is not affiliated with FanDuel and receives nothing if you take this promotion. Terms, eligibility and availability vary by state and change without notice; check FanDuel’s own terms before opting in. 21+ where required.
CJ Abrams — 19.8% to homer (+306 DraftKings)
CJ Abrams (WSH, LHB) faces Michael Lorenzen (R) at COL at 8:40 PM ET, in a park playing at a 1.11 factor and flagged HR-friendly with 3 mph blowing out. PropsBot puts him at 19.8% to go deep and tags the spot PREFERRED. Best available price is +306 at DraftKings. The best combination on the board: the highest probability, the friendliest park, wind blowing out, and an opposing starter conceding 1.42 home runs per nine. Coors does a lot of the work here.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.0 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 1.42 | 8 |
Junior Caminero — 19.4% to homer (+280 FanDuel)
Junior Caminero (TB, RHB) faces Kevin Gausman (R) at TOR at 7:07 PM ET, in a park playing at a 1.04 factor with a 5 mph crosswind. PropsBot puts him at 19.4% to go deep and tags the spot ELITE. Best available price is +280 at FanDuel. The strongest batted-ball profile of the six: a 79.5 bat rating, 22 hard-hit balls and five barrels over fourteen days, and 13 hard-hit in the last seven. He is also the shortest price on the board, which is the market agreeing.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.5 | 22 | 5 | 18 | 29 | 1.23 | 13 |
Elly De La Cruz — 15.6% to homer (+390 BetMGM)
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SHB) faces Luis Castillo (R) at SEA at 9:40 PM ET, in a park playing at a 0.82 factor, the most suppressive park on the slate with a 2 mph crosswind. PropsBot puts him at 15.6% to go deep and tags the spot ELITE. Best available price is +390 at BetMGM. Strong bat, wrong venue. A 0.82 park factor in Seattle is the single biggest drag on any name here, and it is why the price sits at +390 despite a profile close to Caminero’s.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.5 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 1.33 | 10 |
Yandy Díaz — 13.1% to homer (+580 DraftKings)
Yandy Díaz (TB, RHB) faces Kevin Gausman (R) at TOR at 7:07 PM ET, in a park playing at a 1.04 factor with a 5 mph crosswind. PropsBot puts him at 13.1% to go deep and tags the spot PREFERRED. Best available price is +580 at DraftKings. Carries a DUE +48 flag, meaning he is well past his expected home run interval. Treat that as context rather than a reason: two barrels in fourteen days is the weakest power indicator among the shorter prices here, and the +580 reflects it.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74.9 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 1.23 | 8 |
Austin Riley — 11.0% to homer (+500 FanDuel)
Austin Riley (ATL, RHB) faces Walker Buehler (R) vs SD at 7:15 PM ET, in a park playing at a 0.95 factor with 8 mph blowing in. PropsBot puts him at 11.0% to go deep and tags the spot ELITE. Best available price is +500 at FanDuel. The clearest example of tier and probability disagreeing. Riley is tagged ELITE and draws the most homer-prone starter on the board at 1.51 per nine, but 8 mph of wind blowing in and a 0.95 park drop him to 11.0% — the second-lowest read here.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.9 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 1.51 | 11 |
Braden Montgomery — 10.1% to homer (+740 DraftKings)
Braden Montgomery (CWS, SHB) faces Kumar Rocker (R) at TEX at 8:05 PM ET, in a park playing at a 1.06 factor with 4 mph blowing out. PropsBot puts him at 10.1% to go deep and tags the spot BELOW. Best available price is +740 at DraftKings. The board’s own tag is BELOW, and the underlying numbers back that up: one barrel in fourteen days and a 69.7 bat rating are the weakest here. Listed for completeness rather than as a recommendation.
| Bat (14d) | Hard hit (14d) | Barrels (14d) | EV100 | HR since | Opp HR/9 | Hard hit (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69.7 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1.17 | 8 |
Worth noting one overlap with today’s earlier picks: Braden Montgomery draws Kumar Rocker, who is also the subject of our Over 4.5 strikeouts pick. Those two reads point in opposite directions — a strikeout-heavy Rocker start is a poor environment for a Montgomery home run — so treat them as alternatives rather than a pairing.
See the full MLB home run board
PropsBot scores every hitter on the slate for home run probability and re-sorts as lines and weather move. The full board is free at app.propsbot.ai.
Responsible gambling. Home run props are high-variance by design — the long prices reflect genuinely low hit rates. For information and entertainment only; bet within your means, 21+ where required. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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