Three scorers, one rung. Devin Booker, Pascal Siakam and Jamal Murray all have their best value on tonight’s NBA points ladder at the same place: 30 or more points. It’s not the safe step. It’s the one where each player’s last 10 games beat the price by a real margin, and where the Confidence Score still sits above what the book implies.
Booker’s and Siakam’s best prices are on Kalshi, Murray’s is at BetMGM. These are plus-money shots, so expect to lose most of them individually. The point is that the payout is bigger than the risk the numbers show.
Devin Booker 30+ points (+400)
Phoenix at Oklahoma City, 8:00 PM ET. Booker has scored 30 or more in 5 of his last 10 regular-season games. At +400, the market gives him a 20.0% chance. His Confidence Score on the rung is 20.9, so the model sits just above the price and the recent log sits far above it.
Why not a lower rung? He’s 7 for 10 at 25+, but that rung is +156 with a Confidence Score of 36.8 against a 39.1% implied price. The model doesn’t like it. And the risk at 30+ is easy to name: OKC is 3-0 and a 10.5-point favorite. A lopsided game cuts his fourth quarter.
Pascal Siakam 30+ points (+317)
Indiana at Milwaukee, 8:00 PM ET. Siakam is 4 of 10 at 30+, against a 24.0% implied price at +317. Confidence Score: 25.4. Of the three games, this one has the friendliest backdrop for a big night, with a 240.5 total, the highest of the three, and the Bucks still looking for their first win at 0-3.
His 25+ rung at +117 passes the same checks, just barely (5 of 10 against 46.1% implied). The 30+ price is where the gap between his log and the market is widest. That’s the one we’d take.
Jamal Murray 30+ points (+300)
Golden State at Denver, 10:00 PM ET. The Kalshi +317 from earlier this morning is gone. The best price now is +300 at BetMGM. Murray is also 4 of 10 at 30+, the market implies 25.0%, and his Confidence Score of 25.2 clears it by a fraction of a point. This is the thinnest of the three on the model side and the one most dependent on the hit rate holding up.
Denver is a 7.5-point favorite against a Warriors team that’s 0-3. Murray’s 25+ rung (+117, 5 of 10) has a Confidence Score of 44.4, under its 46.1% implied price, so it’s a pass.
The rungs we’re skipping
The 35+ step pays well for Booker and Murray, both 3 of 10 there, but the prices run +775 and longer. We stop at +400 on a ladder. The lower rungs, 10+ through 20+, mostly hit, but they’re priced like it. The value is gone by then.
Quick reference
- Booker 30+: +400 Kalshi, last 10 at 50%, implied 20.0%, Confidence Score 20.9
- Siakam 30+: +317 Kalshi, last 10 at 40%, implied 24.0%, Confidence Score 25.4
- Murray 30+: +300 BetMGM, last 10 at 40%, implied 25.0%, Confidence Score 25.2
Prices are from the 7:55 AM ET board, and Booker’s +400 is right at the edge of what we’d take, so check it. Every rung on all three ladders is priced live on the PropsBot board, and results go on the public ledger at dashboard.propsbot.ai.
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